View Full Version : This Will Not End Well

September 10th, 2009, 02:50 PM
Strategypage (http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/china/articles/20090906.aspx) has an article about India v China.

I have long said that this is the biggest issue in the world today. China is trying to secure Indian Ocean naval bases, and is militarizing the Tibet border with Nepal, the Indians are returning the favor there. Burma and China are tight.

Japans remilitarization is underway - they are building huge amphbious assault ships and have Aegis Cruisers, and will soon have the F22.

India is developing ramjet missiles with Russia, and still buying Russian jets, and Russia is now reluctant to sell latest grade equipment to the PRC.

Who will blink first?

September 6, 2009: China and India are competing for bases in the Indian Ocean. India recently gave the tiny island nation of Maldives more economic and military aid, and tied the new Maldives radar system (covering large areas of ocean) in with the radar system that covers Indian coastal waters. India is also increasing aid to Sri Lanka, where China is seeking to obtain basing rights for warships. Both Maldives and Sri Lanka are off the southern tip of India, and could provide Chinese ships with bases in the middle of the Indian Ocean. China is running into stiff opposition from India, which does not want any Chinese warships hanging about in this neighborhood.

Meanwhile, India has given up on Myanmar (Burma), which continues making war on tribal rebels in northern Burma, while ruining its economy. This violence has been going on for centuries, but became particularly violent once Burma became independent (from Britain) after World War II. The violence has become quite intense of late, with thousands of refugees fleeing into China, and at least one Chinese soldier was killed by bullets that crossed the border. Like North Korea, the Burmese dictators (who are nationalist/socialist, not communist) have ruined their economy. Growing unrest, and lots of people eager to flee into neighboring China, are a problem the Chinese government would rather not have. So the Chinese are leaning on the Burmese rulers to shape up. Not much success yet.

Japanese pundits and politicians are talking about nuclear weapons again. The Japanese perceive a growing military threat from China, and despite long traditions of being "anti-nuclear weapons", most Japanese understand that the only counter for China's nuclear weapons, are Japanese ones. It's long been acknowledged that Japan could quickly build nukes, and has the ability to do so within six months. Then there's the general military balance between the two nations. At present, Japan spends about one percent of its GDP on the defense budget, while China, which spends over four percent of its GDP on defense. This results in China spending twice as much money as Japan, on defense. But if Japan spent two percent of GDP on defense, that spending advantage would disappear. Japan's relative lack of defense spending still has not prevented it from turning out what is arguably the best navy and air force in the region, one that outclasses even China.

The government grows ever more nervous about the Internet, especially the disproportionate number of young (under age 30) Chinese who are online all the time. Over two thirds of Chinese Internet users are under 30, about twice the percentage of the U.S. The younger Chinese Internet users have proved unpredictable, and eager for change. For the small group of guys running the Chinese police state, this is not good news. Repeated attempts to impose some discipline on these young Internet users, have failed. The young Internet users just get angrier the more the government leans on them. This will not end well.

Recently, relations with Australia have been frosty, because China has arrested four Australian mining company executives, and charged them with bribing Chinese government officials. Australians see this as the height of hypocrisy, give the widespread corruption in China. But the Chinese point out that the arrests are part of a new anti-corruption campaign that targets those who pay bribes, and that Australians, especially those who do business in China, should have been paying attention.
August 28, 2009: The government has drawn a line in the water, and told the U.S. that it can expect Chinese naval and air forces to try and keep American warships and aircraft out of the Chinese economic zone. International law (the 1994 Law of the Sea treaty) recognizes the waters 22 kilometers from land as under the jurisdiction of the nation controlling the nearest land. That means ships cannot enter these "territorial waters" without permission. Moreover, the waters 360 kilometers from land are considered the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), of the nation controlling the nearest land. The EEZ owner can control who fishes there, and extracts natural resources (mostly oil and gas) from the ocean floor. But the EEZ owner cannot prohibit free passage, or the laying of pipelines and communications cables. China claims that American warships conduct illegal espionage on Chinese bases and military training. But the 1994 treaty says nothing about such matters. China is simply doing what China has been doing for centuries, trying to impose its will on neighbors, or anyone venturing into what China considers areas under its control.