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ablarc
May 9th, 2010, 03:53 PM
White flight? Suburbs lose young whites to cities


By HOPE YEN, Associated Press Writer Sun May 9, 12:52 am ET

WASHINGTON White flight? In a reversal, America's suburbs are now more likely to be home to minorities, the poor and a rapidly growing older population as many younger, educated whites move to cities for jobs and shorter commutes.

An analysis of 2000-2008 census data by the Brookings Institution highlights the demographic "tipping points" seen in the past decade and the looming problems in the 100 largest metropolitan areas, which represent two-thirds of the U.S. population.

The findings could offer an important road map as political parties, including the tea party movement, seek to win support in suburban battlegrounds in the fall elections and beyond. In 2008, Barack Obama carried a substantial share of the suburbs, partly with the help of minorities and immigrants.

The analysis being released Sunday provides the freshest detail on the nation's growing race and age divide, which is now feeding tensions in Arizona over its new immigration law.
Ten states, led by Arizona, surpass the nation in a "cultural generation gap" in which the senior populations are disproportionately white and children are mostly minority.

This gap is pronounced in suburbs of fast-growing areas in the Southwest, including those in Florida, California, Nevada, and Texas.

"A new metro map is emerging in the U.S. that challenges conventional thinking about where we live and work," said Alan Berube, research director with the Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings, a nonpartisan think-tank based in Washington. "The old concepts of suburbia, Sun Belt and Rust Belt are outdated and at odds with effective governance."

Suburbs still tilt white. But, for the first time, a majority of all racial and ethnic groups in large metro areas live outside the city. Suburban Asians and Hispanics already had topped 50 percent in 2000, and blacks joined them by 2008, rising from 43 percent in those eight years.

The suburbs now have the largest poor population in the country. They are home to the vast majority of baby boomers age 55 to 64, a fast-growing group that will strain social services after the first wave of boomers turns 65 next year.

Analysts attribute the racial shift to suburbs in many cases to substantial shares of minorities leaving cities, such as blacks from New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Whites, too, are driving the trend by returning or staying put in larger cities.

Washington, D.C., and Atlanta posted the largest increases in white share since 2000, each up 5 percentage points to 44 percent and 36 percent, respectively. Other white gains were seen in New York, San Francisco, Boston and cities in another seven of the nation's 100 largest metro areas.

"A new image of urban America is in the making," said William H. Frey, a demographer at Brookings who co-wrote the report. "What used to be white flight to the suburbs is turning into 'bright flight' to cities that have become magnets for aspiring young adults who see access to knowledge-based jobs, public transportation and a new city ambiance as an attraction."

"This will not be the future for all cities, but this pattern in front runners like Atlanta, Portland, Ore., Raleigh, N.C., and Austin, Texas, shows that the old urban stereotypes no longer apply," he said.

The findings are part of Brookings' broad demographic portrait of America since 2000, when the country experienced the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, a historic boom in housing prices and the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression.

Calling 2010 the "decade of reckoning," the report urges policymakers to shed outdated notions of America's cities and suburbs and work quickly to address the coming problems caused by the dramatic shifts in population.

Among its recommendations: affordable housing and social services for older people in the suburbs; better transit systems to link cities and suburbs; and a new federal Office of New Americans to serve the education and citizenship needs of the rapidly growing immigrant community.

Other findings:

_About 83 percent of the U.S. population growth since 2000 was minority, part of a trend that will see minorities become the majority by midcentury. Across all large metro areas, the majority of the child population is now nonwhite.

_The suburban poor grew by 25 percent between 1999 and 2008 five times the growth rate of the poor in cities. City residents are more likely to live in "deep" poverty, while a higher share of suburban residents have incomes just below the poverty line.

_For the first time in several decades, the population is growing at a faster rate than households, due to delays in marriage, divorce and births as well as longer life spans. People living alone and nonmarried couple families are among the fastest-growing in suburbs.

lofter1
May 9th, 2010, 04:25 PM
... America's suburbs are now more likely to be home to minorities, the poor and a rapidly growing older population ...

Ten states, led by Arizona, surpass the nation in a "cultural generation gap" in which the senior populations are disproportionately white and children are mostly minority.

... recommendations: affordable housing and social services for older people in the suburbs; better transit systems to link cities and suburbs; and a new federal Office of New Americans to serve the education and citizenship needs of the rapidly growing immigrant community.


And those older property owners really don't like paying the property taxes that support schools for the young'uns. Hence the effects of limitations on taxes such as California's Proposition 13 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(1978)), which has resulted in a lowering of the standard of pulbic education there. A generation or so ago it was about the best in the country.

***

Side Note: Check out the current most popular baby names for girls (http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/09/baby.names/index.html?), as noted today in the news.

195Broadway
May 11th, 2010, 12:25 PM
And those older property owners really don't like paying the property taxes that support schools for the young'uns. Hence the effects of limitations on taxes such as California's Proposition 13 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_13_(1978)), which has resulted in a lowering of the standard of pulbic education there. A generation or so ago it was about the best in the country.

***

Side Note: Check out the current most popular baby names for girls (http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/09/baby.names/index.html?), as noted today in the news.

I empathize with seniors who are taxed out of the homes and communities that they have lived in and contributed to throughout their productive years.

lofter1
May 11th, 2010, 12:32 PM
I empathize as well, but a better plan is needed. Throwing out the baby (and the schools) with the bathwater has not worked for California. 30 years ago voters there put into effect an anti-tax Constitutional Amendment that is nearly impossible to change, and the state is now reaping the downside. Large numbers of the better off retirees have moved to neighboring states, where they're now pushing for similar "don't tax me for schools 'cuz my kids are done" regulations.

195Broadway
May 11th, 2010, 12:38 PM
I suspect that there are a few other variables that come into play when sorting out California's economic troubles.

195Broadway
May 11th, 2010, 12:53 PM
Did you amend your post?

Ninjahedge
May 11th, 2010, 01:04 PM
I always love it when people point to teachers and schools for all the states problems.

Schools are probably the best place to spend the money, and the best place to watch where it is being spent (although not TOO closely, as that makes it impossible to do anything that nobody at all will object to in some way).

Administration has always been both the downfall and the financial drain on schools, from that one (Principal?) that bought himself a baby grand, to the ones that I am passingly familiar with that voted themselves a pay raise 2 years before retirement to buffer their pensions.

Spending money on schools makes people want to live there. It increases property value and decreases crime rate. You get more kids playing sports and academic leagues than hanging out on the corner of main street at 11pm on a Tuesday.

But our short-sighted greed always takes precedence over anything else.

Loft? That typical attitude you describe works for more things than just schools. The classic "Cut everything but the stuff I personally use" mantra that we have seen most prevalently recently in relation to the health care "debate". :(

Drives me NVTS.

lofter1
May 11th, 2010, 04:08 PM
I suspect that there are a few other variables that come into play when sorting out California's economic troubles.

The sharp decrease in property taxes over the last 30 years hasn't helped. But neither has an increase in population (http://deltavision.ca.gov/docs/Status_and_Trends/Selected%20References/Population%20Growth/CA%20Historical%20Population.pdf) from from ~23M in 1978 to over 38M today (http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/californiapopulation.htm).

lofter1
May 11th, 2010, 04:10 PM
Did you amend your post?

Not after 2:37 PM (otherwise the "edited' footnote would show) or after you followed up.

Maybe vBulletin did it. It seems to have a mind of its own these days.

195Broadway
May 11th, 2010, 09:00 PM
OK. The question was more of a personal sanity check for me. I looked at it again and wondered if I had just not read it all the way.

195Broadway
May 11th, 2010, 09:06 PM
The sharp decrease in property taxes over the last 30 years hasn't helped. But neither has an increase in population (http://deltavision.ca.gov/docs/Status_and_Trends/Selected%20References/Population%20Growth/CA%20Historical%20Population.pdf) from from ~23M in 1978 to over 38M today (http://geography.about.com/od/obtainpopulationdata/a/californiapopulation.htm).

It puzzles me as to why economy of scale doesn't seem to apply to population density.

lofter1
May 12th, 2010, 12:03 AM
Some 2000 Census info on (then) current and projected CA populaiton:

http://www.lao.ca.gov/2000/calfacts/2000_calfacts_demographics.pdf

Ninjahedge
May 12th, 2010, 08:28 AM
It puzzles me as to why economy of scale doesn't seem to apply to population density.

Generally because the more population there is, the more people expect.

You do not get a SWAT team in a small suburb, etc etc.....

Admin tends to start getting topheavy the bigger the population though.....

ablarc
May 12th, 2010, 10:59 AM
California is different enough from the rest of the U.S. that it would make a dandy foreign country. Like Poland, it has about 38 million people.

If at some point Californians voted to secede, would there be a civil war?

Ninjahedge
May 12th, 2010, 11:06 AM
Only once their neighbors found out how much Cali pays their bills.

It is like NYS/NYC. So many NYS people can't STAND the city and would like nothing better than to get rid of it, until they see how much money is generated and used from the city as compared to the rest of the state.

Then people get quiet (or make fun of Bloomberg... but that is a given).

lofter1
May 12th, 2010, 11:12 AM
Nature may make the choice for them :eek:

There's a natural dividing line (http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/1906/18april/paleo.php) that would excise a huge portion of the most densely populated areas ...

http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/san_andreas_fault_big.jpg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/ae/California_population_map.png

ablarc
May 12th, 2010, 11:32 AM
If California were a country, it would rank among the ten largest economies in the world, with a GDP similar to that of Italy. It would be the 35th most populous country.

Even looks like Italy on a map.

The climate is also similar to Italy --as is much of the landscape along the Pacific coast highway.

Fabrizio
May 12th, 2010, 12:08 PM
At the moment however, California is perhaps best compared to Greece...

Ninjahedge
May 12th, 2010, 12:17 PM
Not as many Vacation Days.

lofter1
May 12th, 2010, 04:15 PM
Mother Nature might impose her own version of White Flight on the Golden State (although she'll probably not discriminate based on so-called race, or anything else) ...




Even looks like Italy on a map.


CA one day might look more like Chile :eek:

http://www.mapsofworld.com/indexmaps/chile-map.jpg

ablarc
May 12th, 2010, 05:04 PM
Chile seems like the ideal place to install a 225mph high-speed rail line.

195Broadway
May 12th, 2010, 08:57 PM
Laughing out loud as I read the last few posts. Thanks for the levity guys. Today was really stressful for me.

As to Cali sliding into the Pacific, I say Bon Voyage!

On another note, I stumled across this artist just now. His work taps right into my soul. check him out!
http://www.shafferfineart.com/The_Art_of_Vladimir_Volegov.htm
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