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Thread: Race for the White House

  1. #1216

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    If McCain gets the Republican nomination, as it look like at the moment, chances are he'll look at Huckabee for his VP. I hear that they are already talking.

    Huckabee could pin down at least part of the right wing vote, and McCain himself can pin down the middle. I think that makes him look much better in GA and the rest of the south.

    Quote Originally Posted by lofter1 View Post
    Huckabee took Rep. Georgia with 34%. Total Georgia Republican voters today = ~ 1,000,000

    Obama took Dem. Georgia with 66%. Total Georgia Democrat voters today = ~ 1,000,000

    Georgia is just about the only state that had a primary today where the voters came out in the same numbers for both parties.

    Huckabee will not be the Rep. nominee for President. Neither McCain nor Romney will be able to coount on all of the Huck voters to come their way.

    If Obama is the Dem. nominee he will capture almost all of Hillary's votes, and thereby Georgia could go to the Dems. Like I said before: If Hillary is the nominee then she cannot count on the full 66% of Obama supporters to go her way.

    So it looks like Georgia will remain up in the air to the end -- unless Obama gets the nod.

  2. #1217

    Default huckabee is a delimna for mccain

    I like Huckabee, but I don't think he should be president. Nominating Huck as VP will bring back a lot of scrutiny about McCain's age and whether we're really comfortable giving this man the chance to appoint supreme court judges. Also, Huckabee is unpopular with affluent business oriented republicans.

    My guess is that the independents who like McCain will hit the escape button if he nominates Huckabee. The Limbaugh hate types don't like Huckabee because he's not mean enough.

    I think the net impact is McCain wins Georgia with Huckabee but loses purple states across the board.

  3. #1218

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    Likely that we'll know more after tomorrow's CPAC. FYI McCain was booed during last year's CPAC straw poll.

  4. #1219
    Disgruntled Optimist lofter1's Avatar
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    From my POV, the most important question now is will Obama supporters vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination and he doesn't? On the news tonight Barack flat out said that he's fairly confident that Hillary's supporters will move to him if he gets the nomination -- but he's not so sure that those who now support him will vote for her if she's the Democratic nominee.

    How those voters respond will decide if we have a 70+ year old Republican President in '08, or something much better for the country & the world.

    The overall numbers from yesterday could be very good for Democrats, if they stick together as one party and all Dem primary voters come out to vote in November, no matter the nominee ...

    Super Tuesday: The Most Interesting Number of All

    Time Blog
    Posted by Karen Tumulty
    February 6, 2008

    I'm up in NYC, where we are struggling to get dead-tree TIME out the door. As is so often the case, our own data wizard Jackson Dykman has come up with the most fascinating bit of data within all these mountains of numbers coming out of Super Tuesday:

    TOTAL VOTES CAST - Democrats
    Clinton: 50.2% (7,347,971)
    Obama: 49.8% (7,294,851)

    Really, could it have been any closer?

    Total votes cast in 21 GOP contests yesterday among McCain, Romney and Huckabee:
    McCain: 43.1% (3,611,459)
    Romney: 35.4% (2,961,834)
    Huckabee: 21.5% (1,796,729)

    For grand totals, vastly more Democrats than Republicans voted yesterday:
    Democratic votes for Clinton and Obama: 14,622,822 (63.6%)
    Republican votes for McCain, Romney and Huckabee: 8,370,022 (36.4%)
    Put another way, the Clinton/Obama race drew 76% more voters than the McCain/Romney/Huckabee race.

  5. #1220

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    Lofter, I'm not sure I agree.

    I think the anti-Republican sentiment is a force of it's own. Your average Joe is really, really irritated, and Hillary also has the support of a number of business types, including CEOs who've never voted democrat before. She'll appeal to the moderates, and the liberals aren't going to all just sit it out. If she gets the nomination, and Obama wishes to retain any chance of future support from the Democratic apparatus, he'll change his tune and come out graciously in support of her (just as I would expect her to do for him). As I continually repeat, BUSH DID NOT WIN THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS, not really, and he and his party are much more in disfavor today than three or so years ago.

    Plus, really, McCain can't help himself, he says the craziest stuff sometimes. It's bound to come out, particularly against Hillary.

    I used to think the Clinton/Obama ticket would be great, also, but now I'm thinking (obviously given my bias) Clinton/Edwards would be quite grand.

  6. #1221

    Default shouldn't Clintons money be suspect if it was earned from speaking overseas?

    There is a prohibition against foreigners funding a US election. If Clinton is giving her money to the campaign, and they earned the money giving speeches overseas, isn't that mildly suspect?

    I mean, what's to stop her from going to a place like Saudi Arabia to give a speech in exchange for 10 million dollars. Ostensibly, this money is in compensation for the speech even though in reality its a campaign donation.

    I personally don't favor campaign finance limits, except from foreign governments. Clinton's speeches seem close to being funnelling money from foreign governments - if you ask me.

  7. #1222

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    Well, what is the Clinton's net worth? I'm sure they can earmark at least $5 million from at home speeches and book earnings. This seems to be a reach to me, unless I'm missing something and she's recently decided to take some time out of her busy campaign schedule to tour foreign countries.

    Actually, given the Republican/Saudi connections, I'd personally find it kind of refreshingly ironic myself. Republican incumbent needs a lift? No problem, lower oil prices temporarily. How much is that worth a campaign?

  8. #1223

    Default numerical analysis flawed

    Summing turnout among states is not a valid approach. For one thing, caucus states have rules that are unlike regular elections. For another, certain rules clearly favor a higher numerical outcome for democrats. Consider California - independents can only vote in the democratic primary. So I don't think turnout there is indicative of votes in November.

    I think Obama needs to do well with Latinos in Texas. There's a mixed message on Latinos and Asians in California and New Jersey - and they might vote for McCain in the general election. That could mean California goes republican, which would be a disaster. Unless he can convince the party establishment that he can win Latino voters I think the superdelegates will stay with Clinton and give her the nomination.

  9. #1224

    Default Talk about flawed analysis

    Quote Originally Posted by investordude View Post
    There's a mixed message on Latinos and Asians in California and New Jersey - and they might vote for McCain in the general election. That could mean California goes republican, which would be a disaster.
    Where are you getting this stuff from?

    California Hispanic Democrats doubled (that's doubled) their turnout from 2004, and accounted for 30% of the primary vote.

    California REP turnout was essentially flat from 2000 total numbers. DEM turnout was 77% higher than REP.

    Explain this "mixed message."

  10. #1225
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    Quote Originally Posted by pricedout View Post
    Lofter, I'm not sure I agree.

    I think the anti-Republican sentiment is a force of it's own. Your average Joe is really, really irritated, and Hillary also has the support of a number of business types, including CEOs who've never voted democrat before. She'll appeal to the moderates, and the liberals aren't going to all just sit it out. If she gets the nomination, and Obama wishes to retain any chance of future support from the Democratic apparatus, he'll change his tune and come out graciously in support of her (just as I would expect her to do for him). As I continually repeat, BUSH DID NOT WIN THE LAST TWO ELECTIONS, not really, and he and his party are much more in disfavor today than three or so years ago.

    Plus, really, McCain can't help himself, he says the craziest stuff sometimes. It's bound to come out, particularly against Hillary.

    I used to think the Clinton/Obama ticket would be great, also, but now I'm thinking (obviously given my bias) Clinton/Edwards would be quite grand.

    There is no way in Hell that Hillary would take VP under Obama, a slim cahnce he would take VP under here as he has much more of a future, its now or never for Hillary to become president

  11. #1226

    Default zippy, most californians are independents

    Again zippy, California has an unusually high percentage of unaffiliated voters. They couldn't vote in the republican primary. So, they all voted in the democratic primary or not at all. The higher turnout number there is not clearly meaningful

    I think there is a very real risk independent Latinos and Asians might vote for McCain in California - that's not a given, but I think Obama needs to show he can close with hispanics in Texas if he wants to become president.

  12. #1227

    Default edwards on ticket = mcain is president

    In the general election, Edwards is going nowhere with independents. He also reinforces the idea that Clinton is part of the past since Edwards was on Kerry's losing ticket, and couldn't come above third in his home state.

    I think Clinton should pick someone like Harold Ford Junior if she can't stomach Obama - or failing that someone like Adrian Fenty.

    For both candidates, I think Bill Richardson would be good. For Obama, he'd obvious help close some gaps in his support. For Clinton, it could provide a backdrop to the kind of diplomacy and energy policy she'd be likely to pursue.

  13. #1228
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    From Pew:
    Hispanics and the 2008 Election: A Swing Vote?

    Complete Report
    Other Resources

    After spending the first part of this decade loosening their historic ties to the Democratic Party, Hispanic voters have reversed course in the past year, a new nationwide survey of Latinos by the Pew Hispanic Center has found.

    Some 57% of Hispanic registered voters now call themselves Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party meaning there is now a 34 percentage point gap in partisan affiliation among Latinos. In July, 2006, the same gap was just 21 percentage points whereas back in 1999, it had been 33 percentage points.

  14. #1229

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    Quote Originally Posted by investordude View Post
    Again zippy, California has an unusually high percentage of unaffiliated voters.
    Big increase in registered Hispanic Democrats in California from 2006.

    See the preceding post.

  15. #1230

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    Quote Originally Posted by investordude View Post
    zippy, most californians are independents
    Since you declared the Democratic primaries over after Nevada, I don't think your status as pundit allows you to make statements without supporting data.

    California registered voters:

    DEM 43%
    REP 34%
    IND 17%

    IND leanings: 41% DEM, 29% REP

    Source

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