They knew it was coming, they were just not sure when, how fast and how big.
They all were riding the coaster to teh top, and only a few jumped off before it went over. Now they are locking everyone in to save their own asssssetts and try to recoup some of their losses.
As for models not predicting it? That is probably due to their damping. You never want a model to give yuo radical results. You want accurate, but conservative estamates. Chopping off these improbably spikes and dips makes for a better mainstream model, but does not forecast things like this.