July 14th, 2011, 02:34 PM
It's definitely possible, recently guys like Ortiz & Damon were considered to be finished and they've been able to find that second gear
Originally Posted by eddhead
July 14th, 2011, 09:19 PM
Sorry, no, but Jeter is still a great shortstop. I wasn't merely being sentimental -- I think he still is a great player. BA is only part of the story. He was more consistent at the plate as a younger player, but he still excels in the field. I just saw him tag a guy out at third to end another ugly inning in Toronto. As David Cone said in the booth, Jeter's always the guy in the right place at the right time. Earlier he tracked down a Bautista hit and threw from left field. Bautista beat the throw by a step, but a mediocre fielder would not have come close.
He is so steady and so mindful all the time. When Nunez or Pena are in his place I cringe ever time a ball is hit their way. Not with Jeter. The plays I just cited will be forgotten because but he does that kind of stuff all the time, every game.
Yes, he may turn it around as a hitter. We won't know if he's in a steady decline until his career is finally over. Superior being, separate species -- normal metrics do not apply.
Last edited by hbcat; July 14th, 2011 at 09:29 PM.
July 15th, 2011, 12:40 PM
He is a steady and consistent shortstop with a great arm and a feel for the game. But he does not have the range he once had; balls he used to get to are getting past him. Don't compare him Nunez or Pena, they are not ready for prime time. In 2010 Jeter ranked 27th / 28 in fielding runs (http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/9067) But even if he is a great shortstop (and I would debate that) he is hurting them more at the plate than he helps them in the field. Maybe he will turn it around, I hope so.
July 15th, 2011, 03:50 PM
^ "He is a steady and consistent shortstop with a great arm and a feel for the game." That's all I was saying. Statistics lie. He has a great presence on the field that does not show up in any metric, but you know this and we aren't really arguing.
I agree he is now a 37-year-old Jeter, but he is still Jeter. The great feel for the game means a lot on a team that is always in the spotlight and in the postseason. He cannot carry the team any more, but he doesn't have to. Robinson Cano and CC Sabatthia can do that.
And you are right -- no one would be surprised if he has a resurgence in the second half and into next season. We won't know what the end of his career looks like until we see it all.
July 15th, 2011, 05:49 PM
Sabermetrics will ruin baseball.
July 15th, 2011, 05:58 PM
Sabermetrics is not the be all and end all of baseball, but used judiciously it can be a useful tool when used in the context of other measurements. But the fact is we don't need sabermetrics to conclude that Jeter has lost a step in the field. Gold glove not withstanding, it is obvious that he does not quite have the range he once had. As I mentioned, he has a great feel for the game, and always has, and brings a lot of intangibles including a history of delivering in key moments (except for last year's playoffs).
Last edited by eddhead; July 15th, 2011 at 06:03 PM.
July 15th, 2011, 06:31 PM
Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp
July 15th, 2011, 06:52 PM
A Beane counter. Explains some of your remarks.
Originally Posted by GordonGecko
Last edited by ZippyTheChimp; July 15th, 2011 at 06:58 PM.
July 15th, 2011, 08:39 PM
Ok so you come in here with a straight face that sabermetrics is the end of baseball (it's actually the extension of it, pro ball has always been about stats this is just the latest iteration), then you make a strange connection between sabermetrics and people watching with their own eyes Ortiz tank for 3 months last year and Damon not hit the ball (before both picked it up again, especially Ortiz), and the best you can do it support it by calling me an accountant?
You're one strange primate Yankee chimp
July 15th, 2011, 09:12 PM
Another ridiculous statement. You make my point by repeating the silly Ortiz example.
Ortiz had a down year in 2009. He was all of 33 years old. People like you wrote him off, not based on a 3 month tank, but 15 games at the start of 2010. 15 games. His OBP in April was .238 with one HR. In May, it was .424 with 10 HRs, and all the Beanies shut up.
If there's anything worse than a Sabermetric, it's one that doesn't even know the stats.
Maybe next you can explain to us how Jeter "squeezed the Yankees" on his contract.
July 15th, 2011, 10:30 PM
Statistics are fun, but you have to let them go after the fun is done. They can seduce us into bad habitual thinking and confirm false assumptions and prejudices. There is no average -- no individual exactly describes the mean.
Dad leaves the stove on at 40 and he's just a busy adult who got distracted by a phone call. Dad leaves the stove on at 75 and the kids are checking into assisted living options. If Jeter went into a prolonged slump as he did in early 2004, his career would be "over". Because he has been so consistent for such a long time any divergence from expectations is taken as a sign of weakness. But older players have down periods too not attributable to diminished skills. He probably is slowing down, but Jeter nearing the end of his career is not average and never mediocre.
Last edited by hbcat; July 15th, 2011 at 10:38 PM.
July 18th, 2011, 11:30 AM
I know this is going to get me in trouble but right now, Jeter is mediocre by any test visually or statistically, and has been for the past 1.5 yrs. He has flashes but so do a lot of mediocre players. He hasn't just left the stove on, this is something that persisted from last year on.
He has not had a medicore careeer, quite the opposite, he has been magnificent throughout. But he is just not playing at that level these days. Believe me, I am rooting for him, but the situation is what it is.
Last edited by eddhead; July 18th, 2011 at 11:41 AM.
July 18th, 2011, 11:39 AM
Sabermetrics is a pretty accurate representation of a player's current value when taken in combination with some of the intangibles we value so much. It is less accurate as a predictor of future performance, but no tool is completely accurate in that regard. Take Ortiz for instance. He was coming off a year where it was discovered that he used steroids. His performance was down significantly. I think most of us (not just those who use Sabermetrics) felt that his career might be over, not on the basis of what he did in 2010, but on the basis of 2009 and the steroids scandal. I doubt our opinion would have been any different if not for Sabermetrics
Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp
July 18th, 2011, 12:19 PM
Maybe I shouldn't have begun the sentence with the word sabermetrics. I'm talking about Sabermetrics with a capital S, the total philosophy of how to run a baseball team. I'm not sure, but GG may have also missed Beane (with the added e), referring to Billy Beane and Moneyball.
Fitting how Moneyball the film is set to debut now, with Oakland having missed the playoffs since 2006, stuck in last place, with the second worst attendance in baseball. for all the hype, Oakland has one one playoff series and no championships for Beane's entire tenure. Their success in the early 200s is due largely to three starting pitchers - Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. Sabermetrics hasn't been able to replace them.
Worst of all, this philosophy creates financially safe, but boring teams that lose when it counts. You need impact players to win key games, and they're expensive. The problem is more that too many baseball teams are owned by investors, who worry about debt service rather than winning championships. In the end, the fans are deprived of the compelling stories that enrich baseball. Would Jeter even be on the team today, or would 3000 hits come somewhere else? Would Rivera have gotten that big 3-year contract at 37 years old.
How much is that worth to Yankees Inc?
July 18th, 2011, 12:23 PM
Agreed, but in fairness to the A's they also have a $65MM payroll, 21st in the league.
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