Revolution in the Arab world

[Dr.T]

I do not want to talk about the Western Sahara because this thread is about Libya, but then I suppose French jets have to go to the Canary Islands to fly over Rabat (¿?). Gaddafi is a genocide, but Mohammed VI (King of Morocco) is doing worse things with the Saharawi people since 1978. In Spain, people think that President Rodríguez Zapatero is a coward because he sends Spaniard troops (1 submarine, 1 frigate, 8 fighter jets) in a military operation in Libya, however, refrains from acting in the Western Sahara. A sort of hypocrisy! What should be the next chapter of this story? Maybe Bahrain, Yemen, Iran, Western Sahara... ?

[Fabrizio]

^ From today's NYTimes:

"There are risks, though. One widely held concern is the possibility of a divided Libya with no clear authority, opening the door for Islamic extremists to begin operating in a country that had been closed to them. The operation may also present a double standard: While the West has taken punitive action against Libya, a relatively isolated Arab state, the governments in Bahrain and Yemen have faced few penalties after cracking down on their own protest movements."

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/21/wo...1libya.html?hp

[lofter1]

5 questions few are asking about Libya

arabist.net
By Issandr El Amrani
March 20, 2011

Not to rain on anyone's parade, but while I'm glad that the multinational intervention is giving cover to Libyan insurgents, I'm rather shocked at the desultory coverage of what might come out of the military intervention. A tragedy has been taking place in Libya, whose people deserve help, but that doesn't mean not thinking through consequences. Here's a shot at it:

1. UNSC Resolution 1973 isn't really about getting a ceasefire, is it?

Not really. Even if Qadhafi were to produce a real ceasefire, which is unlikely, the rebels would not observe it: they would keep trying to topple the regime. This resolution, under the guise of obtaining a ceasefire, seeks to carry out regime change ... This resolution is not just about preventing a massacre of civilians, it's about taking sides ... mission creep will ensure that things will swiftly move from imposing a no-fly zone to more direct efforts, including ground missions. This might be good for the insurgents, might split them, and might not be so good for the countries leading the intervention ...

2. But what if Qadhafi hangs in there, and there's a stalemate?

Well, prolonged civil war happens ... Although the insurgents have insisted on a united Libya, the fact is that historically there is strong regionalism in the country ... The international community could be moved to escalate the mission to make it officially regime change, or push other actors ... Some openly advocate for Egypt to invade Libya ... no one has asked Egypt whether it wants that role. It also has to think about thousands of Egyptians the regime might hold hostage there.

3. What happens if Qadhafi is toppled but the remnants of the regime, perhaps backed by some measure of tribal or other popular support, remains in place?

The best way to end the bloodshed would clearly be to decapitate the Qadhafi regime, something the insurgents are probably not able to do for now and the international community is likely to refrain from carrying out initially ... splits in the international community would resurface ... the West and the Arabs have already backed the rebels. It gets more complicated in the Qadhafis are gone ... the insurgents may not want anyone associated with the former regime in place. So prolonged civil war is one possible outcome ...

4. What if the insurgents don't want to negotiate?

Once empowered, the insurgents will naturally want to go all the way and topple Qadhafi. I totally support them in that endeavor. But we don't know much about them, or how they might behave towards non-combatants that back the Qadhafi regime. I'm sure any violence against civilians by insurgents will be ignored by the intervention force in the fog of war, but this is possible only to a certain extent before it becomes embarrassing, particularly as UNSC Resolution 1973 gives a mandate to protect civilians from everybody, not just the Qadhafi regime. Sometimes the good guys can be bad guys, as we saw in Darfur (both in terms of the stalled peace process and in terms of the actions of certain Darfuri groups).

5. What is the most desirable outcome?

Obviously, to see Qadhafi toppled. But that's only step one. We don't know what the insurgents want aside from a Qadhafi-free Libya. We don't know what Western powers (if they are united on this) want to see. We don't know what the Arabs want to see ... Ideally, a new government emerge that is generally seen as legitimate by Libyans and works to prevent further splits, paving the way for the creation of a new political system (a constitution, parliament, etc.) ... We just don't know what the political forces are on the ground.

[lofter1]

The situation in Libya is very confusing now, but if the downed jet this morning was under control of the rebel troops, then these people do not seem as helpless as it pretends from France because they've got Mig 27 units in use in this combat .

It's now reported that the rebels themselves mistakenly shot down their own plane (@ 1:48 in the vid):

[lofter1]

"For the rebels, a victory by proxy ... "

Al Jazeera's Alan Fisher reports.

[Dr.T]

Often criticized Gaddafi is a dictator, but not everything that the colonel has done is wrong because Libya is one of the most advanced countries in the Arab world. The situation in Libya is not like Egypt or Tunisia. In this absurd war, initiated by French, British and Americans there is only one objective: control the oil fields of Libya. It's the same story from Iraq ... A terrible political mistake!

http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archivo...nt_Report_.png

[Fabrizio]

The Huffpost offers this reassuring headline...

[lofter1]

Why do you leave out Canada which, along with the 3 countries you mention, is part of Phase I operations for the Libyan No Fly Zone under UN Resolution 1973 (SEAD :: Suppression of Enemy Air Defense)

Don't forget: Spain is on board, too -- One of the many countries taking part in Phase II (CAP :: Combat Air Patrol):

Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced that the Spanish Armed Forces is participating with four F-18 fighters, one tanker aircraft, the F100 frigate Méndez Núñez, the submarine Tramontana and one CN-235 MPA maritime surveillance plane.

Plus Spain is offering use of 3 Spanish bases for the military operations:

Rota, Morón, Torrejón

[lofter1]

The Huffpost offers this reassuring headline...

Just the US? Italy and others need Libyan oil more than we do.

[Fabrizio]

^ Do not confuse my posts with Dr.T please. Italy's dependece (co-dependence) on Libya has been posted by me previously in the thread. BTW: the word that I got all day over here from both left and right is that people are absolutely pissed off about our involvement. I wonder about our government's will in all of this, which I think is rather weak... but even so...it does not bode well for the Berlusconi government. Sarkozy's poll numbers have gone instantly down.

[Dr.T]

Why do you leave out Canada which, along with the 3 countries you mention, is part of Phase I operations for the Libyan No Fly Zone under UN Resolution 1973 (SEAD :: Suppression of Enemy Air Defense)

Don't forget: Spain is on board, too -- One of the many countries taking part in Phase II (CAP :: Combat Air Patrol):

Spanish Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero announced that the Spanish Armed Forces is participating with four F-18 fighters, one tanker aircraft, the F100 frigate Méndez Núñez, the submarine Tramontana and one CN-235 MPA maritime surveillance plane.

Plus Spain is offering use of 3 Spanish bases for the military operations:

Rota, Morón, Torrejón

Canada? This country, on North border of the United States, has a gross domestic product less than Spain or Italy, is a second level power. Do not forget, apart from being militarily inferior to Spain or Italy.

When you talk about Spain, the question is: do you know what says Spanish Primer Minister Rodríguez Zapatero about U.S. ?,... I explain to you because you can not read in Spanish. According ZP (Rodríguez Zapatero): " Americans are murderers of helpless children in Iraq and oil thieves". Have you forgotten that ZP is the friend of Chavez and Castro? Do you remember when ZP leaves to Americans in Irak ? My friend @lofter1, ... ZP has 5 million unemployed in Spain today and everyone wants step down the power, take a look to the polls !. Libya's War comes very well to ZP for the newspapers don't talk about the economic crisis in Spain for a few weeks. Will be local elections in coming May at Spain and his political party (PSOE) will suffer the worst defeat on history of Spanish democracy.
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The submarine S-74 (named Tramontana) sent by Spain to Libya is based in Cartagena and it's over 25 years old. It is a waste! F-18A aircrafts (McDonell Douglas) were purchased by Spain to the U.S. in 1992, are old stuff. Why not send the modern warships and Eurofighter jets to Libya ? Spaniard Government has sold more than € 70 Million of armament to Libya since 2009 till today. Don't forget, Lofter1 !!!. Colonel Gaddafi is a great client of Spain and a great friend of Primer Minister Rodríguez Zapatero !!!.

Unforgettable video clip of S-74 Tramontana in 2007, a "legend of the seas" !!! hahaha




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Fabrizio, my nick is Dr.T, do you understand ? In Spain is very famous brand of pork bologna called "Fabrizio", if you want we can talk about it

[lofter1]

So Spain is just pretending to support the No Fly Zone and the American Baby Killers?

Or is ZP positioning himself so his countrymen can get some of that needed Libyan oil?

Maybe ZP will have Gaddafi move in as a roommate?

[Dr.T]

ZP seeks only to buy time for national elections in Spain in 2012, because he knows very well that local elections are lose for his political party on May 2011. ZP hates to US and everybody know what he think about americans. Do you remember when Gaddafi visits to Seville city only 3 years ago ? Do you remember the presents between Gaddafi and ZP ? hahaha... Gaddaffi was a great friend of ZP because ZP is anti-american and a good friend of Hugo Chávez, Evo Morales or Fidel Castro. Who are members of Civilizations Alliance? Turky, Libya, Cuba, Venezuela, Siria, Bolivia... and Spain.

NO FLY ZONE: What is it for you? My home in Spain is only 45 minutes fly away to Libya. If you start a war in Libya then you must to destroy and kill to Colonel Gaddafi, because Libya is close to our homes and he's very dangerous as an enemy.

http://www.laopiniondemurcia.es/comu...ia/310114.html

Maybe Americans thinks of Gaddafi is like Fidel Castro, but then they're wrong.

This war is stupid, it's a internal affair of Libya. Britain, Americans and French only want Libya's oil to them.

[Fabrizio]

Fabrizio, my nick is Dr.T, do you understand ? In Spain is very famous brand of pork bologna called "Fabrizio", if you want we can talk about it

Pork Bologna.... mmmmmm....

Anyway. Sorry Dr.T. for the mix-up.

I corrected my post, see above.

[lofter1]

This war is stupid, it's a internal affair of Libya. Britain, Americans and French only want Libya's oil to them.

And what of Spain? Seems you acknowledge the danger of Gaddafi, and also acknowledge the links between Spain & the Libyan regime, but continue to point to others as the ones who should do the dirty work.

This whole episode exposes the BS of so much international politics. For weeks both the left and the right around the world have been clamoring for action to halt Gaddafi's evil deeds. Last week the Arab countries backed the action, only to run scared once it started. In Russia, Putin and Medvedev are having a pissing match:

March 21 5:54pm: Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, has slammed prime minister Vladimir Putin's comments on military action against Libya as "unacceptable", in the most public clash yet between Russia's ruling tandem.

Putin earlier Monday denounced the UN resolution allowing military action on Libya as resembling a "medieval call to crusade", in one of his most virulent diatribes against the West in years.

I've no military training and don't fully understand what it takes to accomplish the No Fly Zone that so many called for, but the world can't have it both ways: Either Gaddafi and crew are taken down or else we have to sit back, shut up and witness the slaughter. And then buy the oil from whoever is left in charge.