Results 1 to 2 of 2

Thread: Not Even Terror Attack Dims Manhattan Market

  1. #1

    Default Not Even Terror Attack Dims Manhattan Market

    February 1, 2002 (NEW YORK TIMES)

    Not Even Terror Attack Dims Manhattan Market

    Despite the recession and tremors from the World Trade Center attack, the prices of co-op and condominium apartments in most of Manhattan ended last year with a 5.2 percent gain, reaching a median of $505,000, according to a leading market report. And while closings slipped from the year before, the number of sales contracts has bounced back in the past two months.

    "It's clear that market activity is returning to more normal levels," said Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, the appraisal company that prepared the report for the Insignia Douglas Elliman brokerage firm.

    "I would characterize the pattern in transactions as a V-shaped trend," he said, "indicating a rapid drop and quick recovery after this market trauma, as opposed to a U-shaped trend with a more prolonged decline and recovery period."

    The Elliman report is based on 7,858 co-op and condominium sales from Battery Park north to 116th Street on the West Side and to 96th Street on the East Side.

    In addition to calculating the 5.2 percent rise in the median price for all of 2001 to $505,000 from $480,000 in 2000 Mr. Miller also tracked the median price from quarter to quarter. During the first quarter, it was $500,000, up 2 percent from $490,000 in the last quarter of 2000. In the second quarter of last year, the median rose by 8 percent to $540,000. Then, during the third quarter, ending Sept. 30, the market experienced its first price decline in three years, dropping 3.7 percent to $520,000.

    "That trend continued in the fourth quarter, incorporating more of the influence of the Sept. 11 attack," Mr. Miller said. (Closings typically follow sales contracts by weeks or months.) During the fourth quarter, the median price slipped by 8.7 percent, to $475,000.

    Still, the 5.2 percent increase for the entire year "shows the resiliency of the market despite the Trade Center attack and the national recession," Mr. Miller said.

    In the past five years, he pointed out, the overall median price for Manhattan has risen by 140 percent, including a whopping 50 percent jump to $480,000 from $320,000 in 2000.

    The chief economist for the Real Estate Board of New York, Gregory Heym, said the 5.2 percent rise indicated by the Elliman report for last year "certainly coincides with our findings."

    "Most apartment size categories are up between 3 and 5 percent from last year," Mr. Heym said. "We do notice a lot of strength in the studio market. I think most of the activity has been driven by the small units; they hold their value well."

    The strength of the small-apartment category, coupled with slippage in the high-end market, was reflected in the findings of another appraisal company Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson indicating a drop in the average price (as opposed to the median) for Manhattan.

    "We've looked at new mortgage applications below 96th Street, month by month," said Jeffrey Jackson, chairman of Mitchell, Maxwell & Jackson. In January 2001, he said, the average price on those mortgage applications was $734,300, while in December it was $645,389, a drop of 12.1 percent.

    "You had fewer sales in the high end of the market, and more at the low end," Mr. Jackson said. "That drags down the average."

    According to the Elliman report, overall sales volume dipped last year, but showed signs of recovery in recent months. There were 7,858 closed deals in 2001, the report said, a 10.7 percent drop from 8,799 in 2000. Those two years came off the all-time high of 9,245 transactions in 1999.

    During the first quarter of last year, 2,039 closed deals were recorded. In the second quarter, there were 1,829 sales. Then, in the third quarter, 1,904 sales were closed. And in the fourth quarter, there were 2,086 sales. "It must be pointed out, however, that many of the transactions that closed in the third and fourth quarters went to contract prior to Sept. 11," Mr. Miller said.

    So, to get a further sense of the market, Mr. Miller tracked sales contracts signed, month by month, from August through January. In August, 166 contracts were signed. In September, however, that figure dropped to 35, followed by 29 in October and 42 in November. Then a sizable rebound began in December, when 148 contracts were signed, followed by 195 in January.

    There has also been a slight uptick in contract prices over the past five months. During September, October and November the median contract price was $490,000. That rose by 1 percent during December and January, to $495,000.

    As further indication of a recovery, Mr. Miller said, "If you take the number of contracts for this past December and January, and compare them to the same period a year ago, current sales are 2.7 percent higher."

  2. #2

    Default Not Even Terror Attack Dims Manhattan Market

    The real estate market is up while stocks are down. This is not a surprise. The whopping boom in 2000 coincides with the burst of the Nasdaq bubble.

    If the stock markets recover, the prices of real estate should decline.

Similar Threads

  1. Brooklyn Bridge Attack-proof
    By Kris in forum New York City Guide For New Yorkers
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: June 21st, 2003, 03:51 AM
  2. PC Wackos: WTC Plans Too Big for Real Estate Market
    By Agglomeration in forum New York Real Estate
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: December 23rd, 2002, 05:27 PM
  3. Town house market slips
    By Edward in forum New York Real Estate
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: February 18th, 2002, 11:07 AM
  4. Century 21, Closed by Terror, Reopens Soon
    By Edward in forum New York Real Estate
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: February 14th, 2002, 12:16 AM
  5. In Office Market, a Time of Uncertainty
    By Edward in forum New York Real Estate
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: January 6th, 2002, 08:18 PM


Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts

Google+ - Facebook - Twitter - Meetup

Edward's photos on Flickr - Wired New York on Flickr - In Queens - In Red Hook - Bryant Park - SQL Backup Software