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Thread: New York City's Population Growth

  1. #271
    Crabby airline hostess - stache's Avatar
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    Default Me too.

    Last time I sent it in and they said I never sent it.

  2. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by stache View Post
    Last time I sent it in and they said I never sent it.
    Did they get your name and address right?

  3. #273
    Crabby airline hostess - stache's Avatar
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    Question

    Isn't the card pre printed?

  4. #274
    Chief Antagonist Ninjahedge's Avatar
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    Default

    Is this a Question Match like in Rosencrantz and Gildenstern Are Dead?

  5. #275
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    Default If it is,

    it's not a very good one.

  6. #276
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    POINT!!!!!

    Um.........?

  7. #277
    NYC Aficionado from Oz Merry's Avatar
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    How Big is Too Big for New York City?

    New York City is supposed to grow by more than 600,000 people between now and 2030, and it could grow more after that. Is there a point when the Big Apple will be too big?

    by Jarrett Murphy

    When Mayor Bloomberg began promoting PlaNYC in 2006, he began with a prediction: that New York City would add 1 million residents between the years 2000 and 2030. The reason the city needed to get more sustainable—and the justification for permitting increased residential development in neighborhoods that didn’t want it—was to accommodate that larger population.Some critics have questioned the plausibility of that prediction; Queens College demographer Andrew Beveridge has pointed out that hitting the 9 million-person mark will require the city to grow faster in the next 20 years than it did from 1940 to 2000.

    But if Census estimates are accurate, the city (2009 population 8,391,881) has already grown by about 380,000 since 2000. Let's say the other 600,000-plus people that the predictions say are coming do arrive (or stay: the city's population growth is composed both of newcomers and incumbent residents who opt not to move out): How will the city accommodate them?

    NYU’s Furman Center estimates that the city’s rezonings since 2002—which encompass 18 percent of the city—have created enough new residential capacity to house 200,000 additional people. That raises the possibility that several more rounds of rezoning might be necessary to house the city of 9.1 million that is expected two decades from now.

    But exactly how much room the city has or needs is unclear. The new zoning might offer less capacity than estimated. At the same time, older zoned areas might have more room that is thought. And illegal conversions— in a pilot crackdown earlier this year, city inspectors visited 62 properties and found that 54 were not legal apartments —create a whole class of resident s who appear to be housed but are not housed properly.

    "One of the claims that you often hear is that the city was zoned [in 1961] for 12 million people. We really don’t know whether that’s true or not," says NYU professor and Furman Center director Vicki Been. "We don’t know exactly how much unused space there is and how realistic that space is. It’s an incredibly difficult set of questions."

    Of course, it’s not as though population growth will stop in 2030. According to a recent report from the Urban Land Institute, "Beyond the broadly acknowledged countries China, India and Brazil, the United States stands out as the only industrialized country that will increase its population by another 30 percent in the coming decades," with a 130-million-person increase in the country’s metropolitan areas, which already house 250 million Americans, by 2050.

    The only time in New York’s history when it didn’t grow was during the near-death experience of the 1970s, so growth is widely considered to be a good thing. But is it a good thing forever? "Maybe there is a point where we say maybe the city shouldn't grow any longer," suggests Pratt professor Ron Shiffman.

    The RPA’s Bob Yaro says at 25 million to 30 million people, a metropolitan region starts seeing "diseconomies of scale begin to outweigh the economies of scale." Right now, the New York metro region is at around 20 million. But Yaro is confident that by creating secondary metropolitan centers—so that Manhattan south of 96th Street is the daily destination for a smaller share of the region’s workers—the New York region could potentially grow beyond the 30 million mark. He recalls that back in the 1920s, noted urban thinker Lewis Mumford sharply disagreed with the RPA’s calls for planned growth.

    "He said New York was simply going to collapse from overdevelopment and overdensity," Yaro says. "It didn’t quite happen that way."

    Of course, accommodating a larger New York is more than a physical challenge. It’s a political and economic one as well. The Urban Land Institute predicts that as urban populations grow in the next 50 years, "the chasm between the better off and the less well off will increase within local communities, regions, states, countries and continents. Left unchecked, enormous tension and great conflict will arise."

    Beyond the next half-century, population projections get shakier: The United Nations has estimated that in the year 2300, world population could hit 36 billion or drop to 2.3 billion, less than it was in 1950. The mid-range estimate is for a world of about 8.9 billion people.

    http://www.citylimits.org/news/artic...-new-york-city

  8. #278
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    thats too many dam people and the rent's too dam high !!!

  9. #279
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    New York City’s Population Barely Rose in the Last Decade, the Census Finds

    By SAM ROBERTS





    New York City’s population reached a record high for a 10-year census of 8,175,133, according to the 2010 count released on Thursday, but fell far short of the official forecast.

    Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg immediately challenged the bureau’s finding, saying it shortchanged the city by as many as 225,000 people. He said it was “inconceivable” that Queens grew by only 1,343 people since 2000 and suggested that the profusion of apartments listed as vacant in places like Flushing and in a swath of southwest Brooklyn meant the census missed many hard-to-count immigrants.

    The 2010 census did, however, confirm previous findings of housing segregation and benchmarks telegraphed earlier by the Census Bureau’s annual American Community Survey:

    For the first time since the draft riots during the Civil War, the number of black New Yorkers has declined, by 5 percent since 2000. Non-Hispanic blacks now account for 23 percent of New Yorkers.

    The number of Asians increased 32 percent, passing the one million mark. They now constitute 13 percent of the population.

    The Hispanic population rose 8 percent and now makes up 29 percent of the total.

    Non-Hispanic whites registered a 3 percent decline, or 31,649 (compared with a drop of nearly 362,000 in the 1990s) — the smallest decrease in a half-century of white flight. They now constitute 33 percent of the population. Manhattan and Brooklyn accounted for the only counties in the country with a million or more people where the white share of the population rose.

    The Bronx gained 52,000 people, second only to Suffolk among the state’s counties.
    City officials said Thursday that they had not decided whether to pursue a legal challenge to the census’s findings as they did, unsuccessfully, in 1990.

    If the 2010 official count is sustained, it would suggest that the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, coupled with the impact of the nationwide economic collapse during the second half of the decade, produced much slower growth since 2000 than in the 1990s (a rate of 2.1 percent, compared with 9 percent) — even as the recession and housing crisis prompted more New Yorkers to remain in the city rather than retire elsewhere or move to usual job magnets in the South and West.

    City demographers offered a number of explanations for the low figure, ranging from the possibility that the 2000 census had overestimated the population to the likelihood that many tenants, especially immigrants, living in overcrowded and illegally divided apartments and basement cubicles were overlooked even after aggressive efforts by census takers, civic groups and city officials to find them.

    While population growth is not always good, it is considered a byproduct of a robust economy. Fewer people also can mean less federal aid and political representation when Congressional and legislative districts are reapportioned.

    Five years ago, city demographers persuaded the Census Bureau to raise its July 1, 2005, estimate to 8.2 million. And the 2009 American Community Survey had placed the population at 8,391,881.

    “If you say to yourself it looks like an undercount of 2.6 to 2.8 percent, that’s not out of line with what happened in 1990,” said Joseph J. Salvo, the director of the population division at the city’s Planning Department.

    While the 2010 census counted about 166,000 more people than in 2000 (the biggest gain of any city after Fort Worth; Charlotte, N.C.; and San Antonio), Mr. Salvo said, the number of homes and apartments in the city swelled by 170,000.

    “Immediately, you’re suspicious,” Mr. Salvo said.

    According to the census, Queens registered a net loss in occupied housing since 2000 and a 59 percent increase in vacancies. Brooklyn recorded a 66 percent rise in vacancies.
    In the eyes of the census, Mr. Salvo said, “huge swaths of housing have essentially been depopulated.”

    He added that in many cases, the neighborhoods where the census found high vacancy rates were not necessarily where new housing had been built, or where foreclosures had been rampant. “They’re in corridors of immigration,” he said. “These are areas that are transitioning to newer immigrants. When the bureau went out, they came up dry, could not interview people in those places and declared them vacant. Without regard to immigration status these are people who are afraid to come out.”

    Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College of the City University of New York, said the lower population figure “means that growth has declined substantially in New York City as it has in the rest of the country.” (In Buffalo, the population declined by nearly 11 percent to 261,310 — the lowest since 1890.)

    Responding to Mr. Bloomberg’s lament, Robert M. Groves, the Census Bureau director, said, “This is the time when many mayors receive counts that disappoint.”

    “The specific things that Mayor Bloomberg addresses,” he added, “we can’t speak to yet.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/ny...1&ref=nyregion

  10. #280

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    interesting article touching on the relationship between population growth and new housing construction: http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/20...e-in-new-york/

  11. #281
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    Young New Yorkers Plan To Leave State: Poll

    Are you a young New yorker who feels crushed by poor job prospects and absurdly high housing costs, taxes and living expenses? Do you fear you'll soon have to abandon dreams of making it the Empire State? If so, you're not alone.

    About one in three New Yorkers under 30 plans to leave the state, according to a new Marist poll. Thirty-six percent of young New Yorkers say they're moving on to greener pastures and 26 percent of adults said they'll leave in the next five years. Twenty-four percent of New York City residents said they'd pack their bags.

    "New Yorkers are feeling the financial squeeze on the home front. Right now, many young people do not see their future in New York State,” said Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Unchecked, this threatens to drain the state of the next generation.”

    More than 60 percent of those who said they're abandoning New York are doing so for economic reasons like jobs, the cost of living and taxes. More than three-quarters of those surveyed said they view New York as an expensive place to raise a family.

    The survey also showed that 69 percent of poll takers want property taxes capped so that they do not rise more than two percent a year.

    The American Legislative Exchange Council reported that New York lost 1.9 million residents from 1998 to 2007, most of whom are young and educated.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/0..._n_861580.html

    http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/20...er=rss&emc=rss

  12. #282
    Chief Antagonist Ninjahedge's Avatar
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    Yeah, they are all moving to NJ, CT and MA!

  13. #283
    Disgruntled Optimist lofter1's Avatar
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    NYers or NYCers?

  14. #284

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    Some demographers were predicting that Florida would take over New York as the third-largest state in the 2013 intercensal estimates (only the decennial headcounts are used for reapportionment purposes). But that has not happened. It will likely occur later this decade, though.

    Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2013
    Geographic Area April 1, 2010 Population Estimate (as of July 1)
    Census Estimates Base 2010 2011 2012 2013
    United States 308,745,538 308,747,716 309,326,295 311,582,564 313,873,685 316,128,839
    Northeast 55,317,240 55,317,261 55,376,322 55,598,499 55,771,792 55,943,073
    Midwest 66,927,001 66,927,549 66,976,321 67,146,663 67,321,425 67,547,890
    South 114,555,744 114,557,273 114,857,899 116,032,322 117,253,992 118,383,453
    West 71,945,553 71,945,633 72,115,753 72,805,080 73,526,476 74,254,423
    .Alabama 4,779,736 4,779,758 4,785,570 4,801,627 4,817,528 4,833,722
    .Alaska 710,231 710,231 713,868 723,375 730,307 735,132
    .Arizona 6,392,017 6,392,015 6,408,790 6,468,796 6,551,149 6,626,624
    .Arkansas 2,915,918 2,915,916 2,922,280 2,938,506 2,949,828 2,959,373
    .California 37,253,956 37,253,959 37,333,601 37,668,681 37,999,878 38,332,521
    .Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,048,196 5,118,400 5,189,458 5,268,367
    .Connecticut 3,574,097 3,574,097 3,579,210 3,588,948 3,591,765 3,596,080
    .Delaware 897,934 897,936 899,711 907,985 917,053 925,749
    .District of Columbia 601,723 601,767 605,125 619,624 633,427 646,449
    .Florida 18,801,310 18,802,690 18,846,054 19,083,482 19,320,749 19,552,860
    .Georgia 9,687,653 9,687,663 9,713,248 9,810,181 9,915,646 9,992,167
    .Hawaii 1,360,301 1,360,301 1,363,731 1,376,897 1,390,090 1,404,054
    .Idaho 1,567,582 1,567,652 1,570,718 1,583,930 1,595,590 1,612,136
    .Illinois 12,830,632 12,830,632 12,839,695 12,855,970 12,868,192 12,882,135
    .Indiana 6,483,802 6,483,797 6,489,965 6,516,336 6,537,782 6,570,902
    .Iowa 3,046,355 3,046,857 3,050,314 3,064,102 3,075,039 3,090,416
    .Kansas 2,853,118 2,853,116 2,858,910 2,869,548 2,885,398 2,893,957
    .Kentucky 4,339,367 4,339,357 4,347,698 4,366,869 4,379,730 4,395,295
    .Louisiana 4,533,372 4,533,372 4,545,392 4,575,197 4,602,134 4,625,470
    .Maine 1,328,361 1,328,361 1,327,366 1,327,844 1,328,501 1,328,302
    .Maryland 5,773,552 5,773,623 5,787,193 5,840,241 5,884,868 5,928,814
    .Massachusetts 6,547,629 6,547,629 6,563,263 6,606,285 6,645,303 6,692,824
    .Michigan 9,883,640 9,883,701 9,876,149 9,874,589 9,882,519 9,895,622
    .Minnesota 5,303,925 5,303,925 5,310,337 5,347,108 5,379,646 5,420,380
    .Mississippi 2,967,297 2,967,299 2,970,047 2,977,886 2,986,450 2,991,207
    .Missouri 5,988,927 5,988,923 5,996,063 6,010,065 6,024,522 6,044,171
    .Montana 989,415 989,417 990,527 997,600 1,005,494 1,015,165
    .Nebraska 1,826,341 1,826,341 1,829,838 1,841,749 1,855,350 1,868,516
    .Nevada 2,700,551 2,700,552 2,703,230 2,717,951 2,754,354 2,790,136
    .New Hampshire 1,316,470 1,316,469 1,316,614 1,318,075 1,321,617 1,323,459
    .New Jersey 8,791,894 8,791,909 8,802,707 8,836,639 8,867,749 8,899,339
    .New Mexico 2,059,179 2,059,183 2,064,982 2,077,919 2,083,540 2,085,287
    .New York 19,378,102 19,378,105 19,398,228 19,502,728 19,576,125 19,651,127
    .North Carolina 9,535,483 9,535,471 9,559,533 9,651,377 9,748,364 9,848,060
    .North Dakota 672,591 672,591 674,344 684,867 701,345 723,393
    .Ohio 11,536,504 11,536,503 11,545,435 11,549,772 11,553,031 11,570,808
    .Oklahoma 3,751,351 3,751,357 3,759,263 3,785,534 3,815,780 3,850,568
    .Oregon 3,831,074 3,831,073 3,837,208 3,867,937 3,899,801 3,930,065
    .Pennsylvania 12,702,379 12,702,379 12,710,472 12,741,310 12,764,475 12,773,801
    .Rhode Island 1,052,567 1,052,567 1,052,669 1,050,350 1,050,304 1,051,511
    .South Carolina 4,625,364 4,625,360 4,636,361 4,673,509 4,723,417 4,774,839
    .South Dakota 814,180 814,180 816,211 823,772 834,047 844,877
    .Tennessee 6,346,105 6,346,113 6,356,683 6,398,361 6,454,914 6,495,978
    .Texas 25,145,561 25,145,561 25,245,178 25,640,909 26,060,796 26,448,193
    .Utah 2,763,885 2,763,885 2,774,424 2,814,784 2,854,871 2,900,872
    .Vermont 625,741 625,745 625,793 626,320 625,953 626,630
    .Virginia 8,001,024 8,001,031 8,024,417 8,105,850 8,186,628 8,260,405
    .Washington 6,724,540 6,724,543 6,742,256 6,821,481 6,895,318 6,971,406
    .West Virginia 1,852,994 1,852,999 1,854,146 1,855,184 1,856,680 1,854,304
    .Wisconsin 5,686,986 5,686,983 5,689,060 5,708,785 5,724,554 5,742,713
    .Wyoming 563,626 563,626 564,222 567,329 576,626 582,658
    Puerto Rico 3,725,789 3,725,789 3,721,208 3,686,580 3,651,545 3,615,086

  15. #285

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    The Boom Resumes

    Number of Babies Born Downtown in 2012 Jumps Ten Percent from Previous Year


    The City's Department of Health and Mental Hygiene has just released its statistical snapshot of population growth in the five boroughs for the year 2012. But the innocuously titled "Supplemental Population, Mortality and Pregnancy Outcome Data Tables" contains an explosive truth: The baby boom that has helped make Lower Manhattan one of the fastest growing residential neighborhoods in the United States for more than a decade continues unabated. There were 1,191 children born within the borders of Community Board 1 (CB1) -- roughly a line below between the Hudson and East Rivers, traced by Canal, Baxter, and Pearl Streets -- in 2012. This is almost a ten percent jump over the previous year, when 1087 children were born in Lower Manhattan.

    "It's more than I expected," says Eric Greenleaf, a Tribeca resident and member of State Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver's School Crowding Task Force. "The annual compounded growth rate for new births in Lower Manhattan between 2000 through and was 8.7 percent, so this represents a spike." Mr. Greenleaf added that the numbers, "also appear to settle the question of whether population growth among children in Lower Manhattan has peaked, or even begun to plateau. Neither of these seems to be happening. The curve is still trending upward."

    This trend -- of families with children moving to Lower Manhattan, while local families that already have children have more -- began in 2000 and has tapered only twice. There was a brief rollback in the number of children born within the borders of Community Board 1 in 2002, when new births Downtown fell to 389, from the previous year's total of 503. (Most demographers attribute this to the disruption and dislocation caused terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.) And it happened again in 2011, when there were 1087 babies born within the borders of CB1 -- only one more than in 2010. "I assume this was related to the economic slowdown," says Mr. Greenleaf.

    "For perspective," Mr. Greenleaf continues, "CB1's overall population has grown by 71 percent in ten years. That makes Downtown the fastest-growing area in the five boroughs. But the second fastest growing neighborhood, in the West 20s and 30s, has grown by only 18 percent in the same ten years."

    While the growing ranks of residents are one sign of Lower Manhattan's vitality, the numbers are also worrisome. "Kids born in 2012 will be going to kindergarten in 2017," says Mr. Greenleaf. "We've know for years that we're facing a shortage of school seats, but this makes the deficit more drastic that before. And it may be even worse than it looks, because these numbers are for 2012. When you consider the dozens of new apartment towers recently built or converted in Lower Manhattan, it seems reasonable to assume that even more young families will move here and had children in 2013."

    "Right now," Mr. Greenleaf says, "we have a combined kindergarten capacity in all Lower Manhattan public schools of 400 seats per year." When the Peck Slip School (now under construction in the South Street Seaport neighborhood) opens, "that capacity will expand to 475." When another new school (plans for which were recently announced by the Department of Education, but no site for which has been found thus far) opens, "we'll have a total capacity of 550 kindergarten seats, assuming the school has three classes per grade. But a site would have to be found for that school in the next two months for it to open in 2017, and the chances of that seem pretty remote."

    Mr. Greenleaf projects that if 60 percent of the Lower Manhattan children born in 2012 try to attend kindergarten in 2017 (a consensus estimate used by statisticians), "we'll need 715 seats. And even the new school they haven't sited yet won't get us to that number."

    The problems don't end with kindergarten. "That gap between the 550 seats that are theoretically in the pipeline and the 715 we will need adds up to a deficit of 165 seats. But these kids will attend first grade the following year, and second grade the year after, and so on. Multiply that 165-seat shortfall by six grades and you get a deficit of almost 1,000 seats -- even with the new school."

    Matthew Fenton

    editor@ebroadsheet.com

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