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Thread: New York City's Population Growth

  1. #16
    Build the Tower Verre antinimby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryan
    I agree that the statistical (as opposed to a literal) loss of white people in the face of an influx of brown people is alarming. I also assume that all white people are middle class and educated...
    I don't know if you're being sarcastic or not but I don't care about their skin color. Notice that in my post above, I never mentioned color. It's the numbers that concerns me.
    Of course not all white New Yorkers are middle class (again, notice I said "most" in my post) but most are certainly educated (last time I checked, a high school education at the very least, is compulsory in this country) and I'm sure a sizable number of which are even college educated also.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp
    Luxury highrises won't do it.
    I mentioned luxury highrises only to make a point of having a variety of housing, so that people have a choice.

    Quote Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp
    Under these circumstances, getting twice the space at half the price negates much of the allure of New York
    I disagree. If that were the case, the city would've been abandoned a long time ago for other more spacious and easier living locales. Give the city's appeal more credit.

  2. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by antinimby
    I disagree. If that were the case, the city would've been abandoned a long time ago for other more spacious and easier living locales. Give the city's appeal more credit.
    It wasn't too long ago that only Manhattan was very expensive. The rest of the city may have been more expensive than comparable places elsewhere, but the difference in cost wasn't high enough to make leaving the only viable alternative.

    In fact, at that time, Manhattan was only expensive if you wanted to live very well (have a car and keep it garaged for example). In the 70s, I could have lived in a Manhattan shithole for peanuts. Are there any shitholes left in Manhattan?

    As my grandparents and parents did before me, I was able to buy a house in Brooklyn, raise a family, and live reasonably well. At that time, Manhattan was out of the question.

    Now the same is happening to the other buroughs, and it's very obvious in Brooklyn.

  3. #18
    Forum Veteran krulltime's Avatar
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    Anyway, this is another interesting article about a growing number of children under 5 in Manhattan, that wasn't posted...


    Manhattan's Little Ones Come in Bigger Numbers


    By EDUARDO PORTER
    December 1, 2005

    The sidewalks crowded with strollers, the panoply of new clubs catering to the toddler set and the trail of cupcake crumbs that seem to crisscross Manhattan are proof: The children are back.

    After a decade of steady decline, the number of children under 5 in Manhattan increased more than 26 percent from 2000 to 2004, census estimates show, surpassing the 8 percent increase in small children citywide during the same period and vastly outstripping the slight overall growth in population in the borough and city.

    Even as soaring house prices have continued to lift the cost of raising a family beyond the means of many Americans, the borough's preschool population reached almost 97,000 last year, the most since the 1960's.

    This increase has perplexed social scientists, who have grown used to seeing Manhattan families disappear into Brooklyn and New Jersey, and it has pushed the borough into 11th place among New York State counties ranked by percentage of population under 5. In 2000, fewer than one in 20 Manhattan residents were under 5, putting the borough in 58th place.

    ''Potentially this is very good news for New York,'' said Kathleen Gerson, a professor of sociology at New York University. ''It depends on whether this is a short-term blip or a long-term trend. We must understand what explains the rise.''

    Indeed, nobody can say for sure what caused the baby boom, but several factors clearly played a part.

    The city's growing cohorts of immigrants may have contributed, as the number of children in Manhattan born to foreign-born parents has risen slightly since the 1990's. But other social scientists say that the number of births is growing at the other end of the income scale.

    ''I wouldn't be surprised if it had to do with more rich families having babies and staying in Manhattan,'' said Andrew A. Beveridge, a professor of sociology at Queens College.

    According to census data, 16.4 percent of Manhattan families earned more than $200,000 last year, up from 13.7 percent in 2000.

    Kathryne Lyons, 40, a mother of two who left her job as a vice president of a commercial real estate firm when her second daughter was born three years ago, acknowledges that having children in the city is a tougher proposition if one cannot afford nannies, music lessons and other amenities, which, as the wife of an investment banker, she can. ''It's much more difficult to be here and not be well to do.''

    Over the past few years, New York has become more family-friendly, clearly benefiting from the perception that the city's quality of life is improving. Test scores in public schools have improved, and according to F.B.I. statistics, New York is the nation's safest large city.

    Sociologists and city officials believe that these improvements in the quality of life in Manhattan may have stanched the suburban flight that occurred in the 1990's. And while Manhattan lacks big backyards for children to play in, it offers a packed selection of services, which can be especially useful for working mothers.

    In fact, the baby boomlet also may pose challenges to a borough that in many ways struggles to serve its young. According to Childcare Inc., day care centers in the city have enough slots for only one in five babies under age 3 who need it.

    And while census figures show that children over 5 have continued to decline as a percentage of the Manhattan population, if the children under 5 stay, they could well put extra stress on the city's public and private school systems, already strained beyond capacity in some neighborhoods. Private preschools and kindergartens ''are already more difficult to get into than college,'' said Amanda Uhry, who owns Manhattan Private School Advisors.

    So who are these children? Robert Smith, a sociologist at Baruch College who is an expert on the growing Mexican immigration to the city, argued that the children of Mexican immigrants -- many of whom live in the El Barrio neighborhood in East Harlem -- are a big part of the story.

    But this is unlikely to account for all of the increase. For example, in 2003, fewer than 1,000 babies were born to Mexican mothers living in Manhattan. And births to Dominicans, the largest immigrant group in the city, have fallen sharply.

    Some scholars suspect that a substantial part of Manhattan's surge is being driven by homegrown forces: namely, the decision by professionals to raise their families here.

    Consider the case of Tim and Lucinda Karter. Despite the cost of having a family in the city, Ms. Karter, a 38-year old literary agent, and her husband, an editor at a publishing house, stayed in Manhattan to have their two daughters, Eleanor and Sarah.

    They had Eleanor seven and a half years ago while living in a one-bedroom apartment near Gracie Mansion on the Upper East Side. Then they bought the apartment next door and completed an expansion of their home into a four-bedroom apartment two years ago. A little less than a year ago, they had Sarah.

    ''Manhattan is a fabulous, stimulating place to raise a child,'' Ms. Karter said. ''We didn't plan it but we just delayed the situation. We were just carving away and then there was room.''

    The city's businesses and institutions are responding to the rising toddler population. Three years ago, the Metropolitan Museum of Art began a family initiative including programs geared to children 3 and older.

    The Museum of Modern Art has programs for those as young as 4. In January, Andy Stenzler and a group of partners opened Kidville, a 16,000-square-foot smorgasbord of activities for children under 5 -- and their parents -- on the Upper East Side.

    ''We were looking for a concentration of young people,'' Mr. Stenzler said. ''There are 16,000 kids under 5 between 60th and 96th Streets.''

    Many of the new offerings reflect the wealth of the parents who have decided to call Manhattan home. Citibabes, which opened in TriBeCa last month, provides everything from a gym and workplaces with Internet connections for parents, to science lessons, language classes and baby yoga for their children. It charges families $6,250 for unlimited membership for three months.

    Manhattan preschools can charge $23,000 a year. Ms. Uhry, with Private School Advisors, charges parents $6,000 a year just to coach them through the application process to get their children in.

    Yet in spite of the high costs, small spaces and infuriating extras that seem unique to Manhattan -- like the preschools that require an I.Q. test -- many parents would never live anywhere else.

    ''Manhattan has always been a great place for raising your children,'' said Lori Robinson, the president of the New Mommies Network, a networking project for mothers on the Upper West Side. ''It's easier to be in the city with a baby. It's less isolation. You feel you are part of society.''


    Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company

  4. #19

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    The last article is very encouraging and positive. Even the relentless rise in prices, distressing as it may be to thsoe who cannot afford them, is an obvious sign of health.

    I think the depopulation of cities between the 50s and the 80s was due to a number of phenomena but the single biggest contributor was the breakdown (or perception of it) of law and order, especially in terms of everyday petty crime / needless noise / insolent street thugs. Once you restore that, I think )some / many) people will increasingly filter back to the city or just not leave the instant they have a child.

    Some people decry this as gnetirfication / disneyfication. The first time I went to NYC in teh alte seventies the sense of paranoia and fear was palpable. By the mid-90s I felt enough safe to walk along 9th avenue between 13th and 27th at night with my wife. If that's Disneyfication, bring it on!

  5. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca
    Some people decry this as gnetirfication / disneyfication. The first time I went to NYC in teh alte seventies the sense of paranoia and fear was palpable. By the mid-90s I felt enough safe to walk along 9th avenue between 13th and 27th at night with my wife. If that's Disneyfication, bring it on!
    Right on.

  6. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by antinimby
    Does nobody else find this disturbing?

    We are losing nearly 900,000 people. That's bigger than Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Atlanta just to name a few.

    These are people that the city has/is/will be spending a ton of money educating, providing health care for, housing and overall looking out for their well-being.
    And all this is done for what? The benefit of other cities? Other states?
    1) Many people leave the city for the same state - New York (they go to Long Island and Westchester).
    2) For some if not for many people, New York City will never be a good place to raise a family. Obviously, better school and lower crime rate will help attract and retain some people. But one will always find more house and more land for the money in the suburbs and the schools there are likely to be, on average, much better because it's much more difficult to have really good schools in the city where new people move into all the time and the communities are not as close and don't have as much control over local public officials. Bloomberg made a huge difference in New York in the past few years, but I bet that good schools in NJ and Long Island will still be better than good public schools in NYC even 5 years from now. But the most imortant problem is space. There will never be enough space in New York for the middle class money. If you want to live an American dream - have a big house, a backyard with trees and 2 cars, you cannot do it in New York City unless you live in a not-so-good neighborhood or have a lot of money. And that's not likely to change. The better city becomes, the higher real estate values are. And there are not too many places left to build...

  7. #22
    Disgruntled Optimist lofter1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrSpice
    If you want to live an American dream - have a big house, a backyard with trees and 2 cars ...
    So 20th Century ...

    This model is defunct; an old song sung by marketers -- but it does not serve this country, or any other country, in the 21st Century.

    +++

  8. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by lofter1
    So 20th Century ...

    This model is defunct; an old song sung by marketers -- but it does not serve this country, or any other country, in the 21st Century.

    +++
    It depends on the person. It does not serve me - I recently bought an apartment in Manhattan. I love to live in a big city and will settle for a smaller apartment for the luxury of being able to live in Manhattan. But the average family of 2 cannot do that. I don't think I will be able to afford a condo in Manhattan if I had 2 kids since 2-bedrooms are now getting close to a 1 mil or more. So, having a large house in the suburbs is becoming a necessity for many families with children that earn middle or upper middle class wages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ablarc
    I guess that includes Israelis and Indonesians.
    Indonesians definitely. Israelis probably not.

  10. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca
    I think the depopulation of cities between the 50s and the 80s was due to a number of phenomena but the single biggest contributor was the breakdown (or perception of it) of law and order, especially in terms of everyday petty crime / needless noise / insolent street thugs.
    I think that was the case from the middle 60s to the 80s, but those conditions were brought about by post WWII middle-class movement to new suburbs. There were millions of war veterans who wanted to restart their lives, and the ideal was Levittown, and interstate highways. As neighborhoods destabilized, crime increased, and the process accelerated.

    I almost did it myself.

  11. #26

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    well I'll tell you, I lived here all my life and I'm planning to move out as well. Right now the only thing that's keeping me here is my job and my firm is working to establish offices in Toronto and Vancouver in the next 2 years, which is where I'll be heading.

    I'll tell you why I'm moving out. I grew up in Bay Ridge and love NY like anything but in the past 5 years everything has gone to hell. Even in the 90s with high crime rates and vandalism I could always go back to my nice little Irish-Italian Bay Ridge and find some peace. Now Bay Ridge is (and I'm absolutely racist in my statements) a ghetto. It is an Islamic ghetto. My friends left, my beloved businesses were replaced by Halal meat and every community program that was worth a damn simply ceased to exist. I am of the America - love it or leave it mentality so the second you turn my American area into little Baghdad I'm not gonna like you.

    Sure some of you will think it's good that "people like me" are leaving but I'll tell you how it is. There are no good places to live in Brooklyn anymore. There are decent places but not good places. The only good areas left are some isolated areas in Manhattan ex. BPC, UES, UWS, and many suburbs.

    When I moved to my building there was a couch, a lamp, a doorman, and every service that a decent building has. We had our couch stolen, the doorman left, the lobby has broken mirrors and the mailboxes are busted open. Tragic yes, well shit, if this city can't take care of people like ME, and that is people who generate a whole lot of money and jobs for this city then maybe NY doesn't deserve me. I get taxed here like in no other place on Earth for things like investments while those are the very things our local government should reward. But noooo, they reward stupidity, inability to use birth control, laziness, and being "gangstas" who collect welfar that I'm paying for.

    Meanwhile me and my friends are dodging planes and attending funerals. If you ask me, I loved NY once, now this city doesn't welcome me, so I won't be staying.

    "Wall Street" is moving out, and trust someone who's an insider, we'd rather go somewhere else, other cities are falling head over heels to give brokers/investors/traders tax breaks and incentives, we drive growth, services are the only thing NY has left and the money business is the best business.

    Dark days are coming, keep blocking growth opportunities and someday soon they will run out. Jersey City will take over, al-Queda will run the NY port, and there just might not be enough Food Stamps to go around.

  12. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by TLOZ Link5
    Indonesians definitely. Israelis probably not.
    Israel's not in Asia?

  13. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by ablarc
    Israel's not in Asia?
    Most of its population is ethnically European :P

  14. #29

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    I bring out the best in people.

  15. #30

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    If the definition of an Asian is ethnic rather than geographic, then what is the connection between a Lebanese and a Korean? Or a Japanese person and an Iranian?

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