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Thread: New York City's Population Growth

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    Default New York City's Population Growth

    April 9, 2004

    New York City's Population Grew for 2nd Year, Census Data Show

    By SHERRI DAY

    New York City's population grew for a second straight year after 9/11, according to estimates released yesterday by the Census Bureau, dispelling theories that it might decrease because of the recession or fears of another terrorist attack.

    Manhattan was responsible for much of the growth, adding 9,364 new residents from July 2002 through June 2003.

    Last year, the Census Bureau initially estimated that 12,000 fewer people moved to Manhattan from July 2001 through June 2002 than had come to the city during the same period a year earlier. But the bureau later revised that number to reflect an increase of 1,273 people.

    Demographers and economists say that the instability of estimates is one of the problems with Census data focusing on a single year. The figures, which are gathered by analyzing international migration trends, birth and death records and domestic migration, are nearly always revised at some point during the year, demographers said.

    "It's an estimate or a guesstimate by a fairly time-honored and reliable method," said John H. Mollenkopf, the director of the Center for Urban Research at the City University Graduate Center. "But it's not like the census. It's not like they've gone out and tried to count everybody."

    Even so, the most recent data pointed to a strong trend in population increases in New York City, which added 13,371 new residents from July 2002 through June 2003. Although the city is not growing as quickly as it did several years ago, its population is still increasing while other large cities have experienced declines, demographers said.

    "It's certainly to be expected that the city's rate of growth would go down in the last two years when it was facing a recession that was worse than the rest of the country and worse than the areas surrounding it," said Christopher Jones, the vice president for research at the Regional Plan Association. "The fact that it's continued to grow is a sign that it's still attractive to many parts of the population."

    However, Andrew A. Beveridge, a professor of sociology at Queens College who analyzes the census numbers for The New York Times, said that much of the overall increase in population was probably due to an increase in births.

    But in at least one of the four gauges for population, there was a slight decrease.

    According to net domestic migration estimates - the difference between the number of United States residents moving in and leaving New York City - more people left New York from July 2002 through June 2003 than moved to the city.

    Professor Beveridge found that net domestic migration in New York City was minus 153,464 in the period from July 2001 to June 2002, and was minus 151,370 in the same period last year.

    Both the Bronx and Brooklyn posted increases in net domestic outmigration last year, while Queens and Manhattan posted decreases. Staten Island was nearly unchanged.

    One of the more intriguing parts of the report was the population shift in Brooklyn and Queens, demographers said. Both boroughs lost residents in the last year.

    The population of Brooklyn declined by 3,127 people, and Queens fell by 1,686, according to the report.

    Analysts said the change in Queens, which has traditionally been home to waves of new immigrants, was intriguing particularly since for the second consecutive year, the Census Bureau's citywide figures on immigration are not current. The Bureau uses data from 2000 to 2001, which precedes the changes to many of the immigration laws after the terrorist attacks.

    "If in fact, international migration has actually declined, this would affect all of these numbers and probably negatively, assuming international migration has slowed down after 9/11 and after the boom," Professor Beveridge said. "What this is saying is that New York's really rapid growth of the 1990's seems to have ended or abated."

    Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company

  2. #2

    Default Re: New York City's Population Grew for 2nd Year

    "If in fact, international migration has actually declined, this would affect all of these numbers and probably negatively, assuming international migration has slowed down after 9/11 and after the boom," Professor Beveridge said. "What this is saying is that New York's really rapid growth of the 1990's seems to have ended or abated."

    Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company
    When they talk about the 'boom', would that mean the economic boom or the population boom? Thanks.

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    NYTimes
    April 15, 2005

    New York City's Population Is Down. Or Is It?

    By NICHOLAS CONFESSORE

    According to figures released yesterday by the United States Census Bureau, New York City lost 5,547 residents last year, bringing its population to 8,104,079 as of last July 1, down from 8,109,626. It was the city's first such decrease the bureau has recorded since 1991.

    But city officials say that the numbers are almost certainly wrong and that the Big Apple is bigger than ever.

    "The issuing of these numbers by the Census Bureau is the beginning of a process," said Rachaele Raynoff, a spokeswoman for the New York City Department of City Planning. "We will challenge the numbers, and, at the end of the day, we believe that it will be apparent that New York has grown and will continue to grow."

    So begins an annual dance nearly as protracted and complex as - but rather more friendly than - the budget negotiations occupying state lawmakers upstate. As in Albany, the action is a numbers game.

    Every year between its decennial counts of the nation, the Census Bureau estimates populations of America's 3,141 counties. The estimates are used to help allocate federal housing assistance and low-income tax credits, among other things.

    Most counties do not quarrel with the estimates. But some - including the five counties that make up New York City - will push for changes, arguing that the bureau's numbers do not capture reality.

    "To get these out on a timely basis, we have to have a cutoff," said Sam Davis, a Census Bureau analyst. "Sometimes data comes in later, and the estimates will be changed to reflect the estimates. If we didn't do that, we'd probably still be working on the 2002 estimates."

    Last year, after challenging the bureau's estimates for the populations of Brooklyn and Queens in 2003, city officials succeeded in adding about 30,000 people to New York's rolls. For good measure, the bureau also retroactively revised its estimate of the city's population for 2001 and 2002, incorporating city officials' estimates into their own. When the bureau released the 2004 number yesterday, it revised each of the previous years' estimates yet again.

    Such volatility owes to the inherent difficulty of measuring the population of a country with high levels of internal migration as well as immigration from abroad.

    The Census Bureau uses two main measures of population change. The first, considered by experts to be the more reliable of the two, is the net difference between reported births and deaths in a county or state, known as "natural increase."

    But the second, known as "net migration," relies on federal tax returns, which reflect changes of address within the United States, and data from the bureau's American Community Survey, which provides samples from which the bureau estimates immigration from abroad.

    Both methods, say city demographers, are less reliable in counties with large populations of illegal immigrants from abroad and with illegal immigrants who have relocated after living in other states. Such residents are less likely to file tax returns when they arrive; moreover, the survey does not always produce reliable estimates of immigration at the county level.

    "If a foreign-born population is not an important component of your population, which is the case for most counties, it's not a big deal," said Warren Brown, a demographer at Cornell University who represents New York State in negotiations with the bureau. "But New York City just happens to have five counties for which it is a really big deal."

    Queens and Brooklyn, he noted, pose a particular challenge, since they account for about two-thirds of the city's immigrants from abroad, legal and illegal.

    According to the most recent estimates, Manhattan, Staten Island, and the Bronx all gained in population; decreases in Queens and Brooklyn accounted for the city's net loss. But city officials say that is unlikely.

    "Everyone who studies New York's demographics knows you don't get big increases in Staten Island and substantial increases in Bronx and Manhattan, and no increase in Brooklyn and Queens, which lead the city in immigration and new housing," said Joseph Salvo, who heads the Department of City Planning's population division.

    Not everyone was ready to cast doubt on the city's dip. Andrew A. Beveridge, a demographer at Queens College, said that while he was "a little surprised to see a drop," given previous trends, "it's possible finally that their estimates are finally reflecting September 11."

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    From what I've seen, cities often challenge the Census estimates, and often enough their challenges are valid and the figures are changed in their favor.

  6. #6

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    The Census is run by the Government...

    The Government is controlled by the Republicans...

    The Republicans are controlled by city hating suburbanites and country folk (of all colors and economics).


    It's all spelled out in my opinion...

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    Quote Originally Posted by alex ballard
    The Census is run by the Government...

    The Government is controlled by the Republicans...

    The Republicans are controlled by city hating suburbanites and country folk (of all colors and economics).


    It's all spelled out in my opinion...
    Wow, that's deep...

  8. #8

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    February 19, 2006

    By 2025, Planners See a Million New Stories in the Crowded City

    By SAM ROBERTS

    With higher birth rates among Hispanic and Asian New Yorkers, immigrants continuing to gravitate to New York City and a housing boom transforming all five boroughs, the city is struggling to cope with a phenomenon that few other cities in the Northeast or Midwest now face: a growing population. It is expected to pass nine million by 2020.

    New York might need an extra million or so slices of cake for its 400th birthday party in 2025.

    Estimated today at a record 8.2 million, the population is expected to reach nearly 9.4 million in 2025. But that projected growth poses potential problems that New York is just starting to grapple with: ensuring that there are enough places in which to live, work, attend school and play and that transportation and energy are adequate.

    Elaborating on Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg's disclosure last month that city planners were drafting a strategy to cope with this expected growth, Daniel L. Doctoroff, the deputy mayor for economic development, said the city could accommodate a million additional people or more, but only if it began planning for their needs now.

    "We have the capacity through rezoning and underutilized land to go well over that number," he said. "But you cannot simply divorce the issue of growth from the infrastructure required to support it. It opens up great opportunities only if the growth is smart, if we have the things that make cities worth living in."

    Mr. Doctoroff said the strategy would explore opportunities for growth both citywide and in 188 individual neighborhoods. It would determine how land use regulations and other constraints might be altered to create sufficient housing, schools, subway routes and parks, preserve factory jobs and identify sites for less desirable but necessary structures, including power plants.

    Last month, the New York Building Congress, a trade group, estimated that proposed development, including the World Trade Center site and the Hudson Yards in Manhattan and the Atlantic Terminal area in Brooklyn, would generate a 21 percent increase in jobs by 2025. That, the group said, would require new sources of electricity.

    In his State of the City address last month, Mr. Bloomberg said that he would present a "strategic land use plan" in April. That will explore the potential for growth, identify the constraints and recommend how to provide the housing, transportation, energy and other public works, including parks, to accommodate a larger population, the mayor said.

    "Making sure that every community shares in the New York we are building also requires us to look to the future and plan for the future in ways we haven't dared in decades," the mayor said.

    Among the goals of the plan, Mr. Doctoroff said, are to produce greater geographic diversity — more jobs in Downtown Brooklyn, Flushing and Jamaica in Queens, the South Bronx, Harlem and the Far West Side — and to preserve manufacturing jobs.

    City officials rarely engage in long-range planning, particularly for growth. A short-lived proposal for "planned shrinkage" was advanced in the mid-1970's, sandwiched between a comprehensive statement of urban challenges and potential solutions in 1969 and a candid but still largely optimistic assessment in 1987.

    "This will be different," Mr. Doctoroff said. "Much more practical."

    New York has ranked first in population among American cities since the first census in 1790. Almost steadily since the 1940's, more people have been leaving the city for other parts of the country than have arrived here from other areas of the nation.

    Growth in the 1980's and especially the 1990's has been largely driven by immigration. Foreigners are expected to account for much of the growth in the next two decades, growth that, according to the forecasts, would keep New York in first place among the nation's cities and maintain the New York metropolitan region either as the largest or, at least, tied with Los Angeles.

    One recent study, by Regina Armstrong of Urbanomics, a consultant to the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council, an intergovernmental planning group, also projects that by 2025, the Bronx will be home to 1.5 million people and Brooklyn to 2.8 million — surpassing their mid-20th century peaks.

    Queens will have 2.8 million people, the study says, and Staten Island nearly 600,000 — records for both boroughs. Manhattan, with 1.7 million, will still be short of the more than two million people who lived there early in the last century, many in densely packed tenements. Other projections computed by state demographers suggest that by 2020, Queens will overtake Brooklyn as the most populous borough.

    The Urbanomics projections say that among non-Hispanic whites, births will again outnumber deaths beginning after 2010 and that their net migration from the city will peak by 2015 and that the number of black residents will begin to decline in 2015. They also say that after 2010 more Hispanic people will be leaving New York than arriving but that their birthrates will remain high, and that the number from Asia will continue to increase. After 2025, the population is projected to then expand more slowly, to nearly 9.5 million in 2030, for a 16 percent increase since 2005.

    Compared to the last five years, according to the projections, between 2025 and 2030 among Asians the total of births over deaths will more than double, and the net migration — people arriving versus leaving — will more than triple.

    Population projections are notoriously subject to caveats and variables — no one can predict the impact of terrorism, a possible resurgence in crime, medical advances or epidemics, the global economy or the effects of technological changes on jobs.

    Historically, those predictions tend to have overestimated growth, inspired, in part, by the optimism of the moment or to justify the ambitious agendas of developers and utility executives.

    "The overall driving concept is that a favorable employment situation in the New York region will attract an increase in population," said Prof. Joel E. Cohen, who heads the Laboratory of Populations at the Rockefeller University.

    "I am not saying these projections are better or worse than lots of local area projections. They just should be taken with large grains of salt. Historical analyses of how projections made in the past have done when the future came around have shown much larger errors than anticipated by the people who made the projections."

    The latest official census figures actually showed a slight decline in New York State's population. But, on the basis of housing construction, the city has successfully challenged recent city estimates, and the Census Bureau has accepted the city's figure of 8,168,338 as of 2004. New census estimates are due out next month.

    While some demographers question how long growth will continue, state and city officials say they generally agree with the overall projections.

    "We're in the same ballpark," said Joseph J. Salvo, director of the Department of City Planning's population division.

    Robert D. Yaro, president of the Regional Plan Association, said that with nearby suburbs nearly saturated, the city was no longer at as much of a competitive disadvantage. Still, he said, "New York's got to find a place to put another 1.2 to 1.5 million New Yorkers," adding, "One way to keep these forecasts from happening is to make it prohibitively expensive to live and work here."

    * Copyright 2006 The New York Times Company
    Last edited by Kris; February 19th, 2006 at 10:25 AM. Reason: Graphic removed to avoid having to scroll sideways

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    Hey look at that chart! Where's "whitey" running to now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrooklynRider
    Hey look at that chart! Where's "whitey" running to now?
    By 2025, I'd guess Sullivan County.

    Interesting that the Asian population is expected to grow at nearly three times the rate of the Latino population.

    Calculating the projected population changes broken down by race, the demographics of New York in 2025 will look as such compared to 2000 (2000 population + change between 2000 and 2025):

    White alone (whatever that means):
    2,801,267 - 880,828 = 1,920,439

    African-American:
    2,129,762 + 24,407 = 2,154,169

    Hispanic of all nationalities:
    2,160,554 + 577,355 = 2,737,909

    Asian of all nationalities:
    787,047 + 1,327,052 = 2,114,099

    I'm kinda confused as to why the Times just didn't go that extra step.

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    Default That's nothing to joke about...

    Does nobody else find this disturbing?

    We are losing nearly 900,000 people. That's bigger than Seattle, Boston, San Francisco, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Denver, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Atlanta just to name a few.

    These are people that the city has/is/will be spending a ton of money educating, providing health care for, housing and overall looking out for their well-being.
    And all this is done for what? The benefit of other cities? Other states?

    We don't have to lose this huge amount of otherwise productive, educated people, people.
    Most of these people are primarily middle-class. If we just make it easier for the middle class in this city, we CAN avoid this exodus.
    If you were to ask these people, they would very much like to stay. Most probably don't want to leave if they didn't have to.

    But the problem is the high cost of living mainly due to the cost associated with housing. We need more housing. I don't care if it's luxury highrises, single-family homes, townhouses or what. Just increase the housing stock in the city.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TLOZ Link5
    Asian of all nationalities:
    787,047 + 1,327,052 = 2,114,099
    I guess that includes Israelis and Indonesians.

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    I agree that the statistical (as opposed to a literal) loss of white people in the face of an influx of brown people is alarming. I also assume that all white people are middle class and educated...

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    Quote Originally Posted by antinimby
    I don't care if it's luxury highrises, single-family homes, townhouses or what. Just increase the housing stock in the city.
    Luxury highrises won't do it.

    Many middle-income people leave the city when they start to raise a family. The extra burden is not just more mouths to feed.

    As expensive as the city is, singles or childless couples can usually make due. If the rent gets too high, or you lose your lease, you can look elsewhere, maybe move in for awhile with friends or family. But with children, you need stable, long-term housing. And you have to be able to set some money aside on a regular basis.

    Under these circumstances, getting twice the space at half the price negates much of the allure of New York.

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