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Thread: Manhattan West Project - Brookfield

  1. #301

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    Or maybe you won't.

  2. #302

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    Can someone identify a handful of companies that are likely to commit to a lease of 750k sq ft+ at $80/ square ft+ in these towers any time soon, particularly when there are millions of sf available in 51 Astor, 1 and 4 WTC, 7 Bryant Park, and the HY Towers, and millions more in the WFC, 4 Times Square, Sixth Ave., let alone over a million coMing available in the TW Center?
    Last edited by londonlawyer; August 6th, 2013 at 11:55 PM.

  3. #303
    Fearless Photog RoldanTTLB's Avatar
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    Any of the banks who moved to Stamford for tax breaks are likely candidates to come right back. The '80s are over. It's highly likely that demand from these towers will come from a sector not currently represented in the city. Emblem, if I recall, is in a BIG chunk of 55 Water, but there's no reason someone like BCBS wouldn't want to show up large and in charge once the new HC laws really kick in. Additionally, it only takes one Google to go from a decent space to an anchor space. Amazon does not have a serious in-city presence. MS just hit a huge piece of RE (400k sqft) in 11TS. Facebook has no presence in NYC at all, and may very well decide that they could use some to actually hire any of the engineers Google has. Even Google, despite the fact that they own the building they're in, might decide that, like London, they'd like to make a statement and take a whole new building. All it takes is one deal (That I wish I could be in on. That's instant retirement for a commercial broker right there).

  4. #304

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    I highly doubt that UBS, which is not in the best financial shape, will lease $750k sf at $80/sf+, which is what's basically needed to get the first tower under construction.

    Also, many of UBS' employees live in Westchester and Connecticut. Hence the move. Therefore, the commute here would be inconvenient. If anything, Extell's (now Related's) One HY or Moinian's Girasole, which is directly across from the No. 7, would be more convenient for commuters from GCT.

  5. #305

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    Besides showing that Manhattan commutes from Westchester County have flatlined over the last decade, the link I cited...

    http://wagner.nyu.edu/files/faculty/...nCommuting.pdf

    states:
    While New Yorkers rely less on Manhattan as a work destination, New Jersey residents increasingly depend on Manhattan and the rest of New York City for jobs. Since 2002, almost every county in Northern New Jersey has lost jobs, whereas all five boroughs in New York City have gained jobs. These economic trends have affected work trip dynamics, since more New Jersey residents now must look and commute across the Hudson for job opportunities. What’s more, as New Yorkers are increasingly taking jobs in the outer boroughs, Manhattan has also become increasingly reliant on commuting from New Jersey to sustain the growth of its labor force. The changing economic trends within the five boroughs and in New Jersey are the primary reasons for how commuting trip patterns have evolved in the Tri -State since 2002.
    Northern New Jersey had the most dramatic growth in Manhattan commuters, with a 21% increase during the period of 2002-09 (Figure 1). One of the fastest-growing areas of residence in New Jersey and the entire region for Manhattan workers is in Hudson County, located just across the river from Midtown and Lower Manhattan. Commuters to Manhattan from Hudson County increased by 34% (17,000 total) from 2002 to 2009, making it one of the fastest growing counties of residence in both percent and absolute terms in the entire region. Hudson County also has two of the Top 5 cities for Manhattan workers in the entire state of New Jersey (Jersey City and Hoboken, Figure 2), and the number of commuters from each of these cities has grown at very high rates during the past decade.

    Manhattan commuters from the Hudson County cities of Jersey City, Hoboken, and Union City are frequent users of mass transit modes such as NJ Transit commuter rail, PATH, Hudson River ferries, or commuter buses, accounting for three of the top 10 cities for public transit commuting by residence location in the country (Figure 3). These figures stress the importance and need for mass transit development in northern New Jersey, especially since PATH ridership has increased by approximately 31% since 2005i, reaching a record high of 76.6 million annual trips in 2011ii.

  6. #306

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    I saw that previously.

    There are millions of new sf available, millions of sf of old space available, and millions of sf of space that developers seek to build (e.g., One HY, Girasole, 2 and 3 WTC, 15 Penn, 1 Vanderbilt, etc.)

    Brookfield would have to lease the space at cost, like Related did, to incentivize tenants to move here, particularly since it's a grimy location. I don't see that happening.

    Brookfield should raze its hideous structure located at 450 10th and replace it with twin residential towers and green space. Its new plaza on the MW site could run through 450 10th directly to 10th Ave. That would open the new MW towers to Related's HY. It could probably also transfer air rights to the MW site since they're contiguous.
    Last edited by londonlawyer; August 7th, 2013 at 05:02 PM.

  7. #307

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    You preface most of your remarks with:

    "These buildings suck"
    "Brookfield's design sucks."
    "These towers are lousy"

    It seems to influence what you think about site viability, which doesn't make any sense. If we've learned anything over the years here, it's that architecture is down the list of what draws commercial tenants. Yes, they're not exciting, but how often has that mattered. Penn Plaza is butt ugly, but has always been successful.

    If this is true:
    It's like the Lincoln Tunnel's anus and all of those roadways between 11th, Dyer, and 9th are like feces-filled intestines.
    ...then some of the Coach tenants will actually have to cross those streets and walk twice as far in the "dumpy neighborhood" to get to Penn Station.

    Brookfield would have to lease the space at cost, like Related did, to incentivize tenants to move here, particularly since it's a grimy location. I don't see that happening.
    The first buildings at HY are going up before the platform gets started, and it will take Related a considerable amount of time to complete it, so the tenants will have to work next to [as you might describe it] "a dumpy railroad yard" for several years. Brookkfield's approach is the opposite. The site will be completed before any buildings are put up. It will be one block from the hub.

    So without resorting to "the place is a dump," explain why Brookfield has to lease at cost.

  8. #308

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    Quote Originally Posted by londonlawyer View Post
    I Brookfield should raze its hideous structure located at 450 10th and replace it with twin residential towers and green space. Its new plaza on the MW site could run through 450 10th directly to 10th Ave. That would open the new MW towers to Related's HY. It could probably also transfer air rights to the MW site since they're contiguous.
    450 10th Ave impacts the HY north and south towers much more than Brookfield's towers on 9th, so I don't see how that's relevant.

  9. #309
    Disgruntled Optimist lofter1's Avatar
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    450 Tenth is slated for an upgrade. A little birdie tells me that renders are floating around showing a new glass facade. And some major retail tenants are eyeing street level space there, getting things in line for residents coming in over the next decade.

  10. #310

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    I've seen the renders with the new glass facade, and it's still incredibly ugly. I speculate that Brookfield is blind.

  11. #311

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp View Post
    You preface most of your remarks with:

    "These buildings suck"...

    So without resorting to "the place is a dump," explain why Brookfield has to lease at cost.
    I have to inject some humor into the conversation. This isn't a project for work. It's an Internet forum that I log onto for fun in my limited free time.

    Seriously, though, in a market with so much open space, any developer has to differentiate itself by offering a great product (not MW), a great location (not MW), and/or a great price. Why would a company commit to a massive lease here, as opposed to the WTC, 1 Vanderbilt, the other HY projects, etc.?

  12. #312
    Disgruntled Optimist lofter1's Avatar
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    How can you say that MW is not a great location? One block east is Penn Station. Two blocks to the west will be the new 7 Line station. Within the decade there will be added ferry service on the Hudson directly to the west. And all sorts of amenities and services will come on board at Hudson Yards.

    Seems to me it's positioned very well.

  13. #313

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    Quote Originally Posted by RoldanTTLB View Post
    Facebook has no presence in NYC at all, and may very well decide that they could use some to actually hire any of the engineers Google has.
    Facebook has a significant NYC presence, in Midtown, though they're looking to expand big-time downtown.

    Amazon has a decent presence, and is also growing rapidly in NYC.

  14. #314

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    Quote Originally Posted by londonlawyer View Post
    Seriously, though, in a market with so much open space, any developer has to differentiate itself by offering a great product (not MW)
    From a tenant's viewpoint, a "great product" isn't necessarily architecture first. Efficient office space, low cost, and transportation are primary. That's why, whether we like it or not, plain office boxes have no trouble getting tenants if other factors are met.

    a great location (not MW)
    Not an answer at all. What's wrong with the location that isn't wrong with HY? It's closer to the hub. The station will be extended west past 8th Ave.

    HY is a long way from being a complete product. The Coach building isn't over the railyard; it's on the perimeter. It's a pioneer in a wasteland. I'm not knocking it; I'm just using your unreasonable argument.

    The deck won't be done for a long time. Amtrak just started a tunnel-box project in the railyard from 11th to 10 Ave as a placeholder for the future Hudson River tunnels. It will take at least a year.

    In contrast, the Brookfield platform will be complete at the end of 2014. The site will be ready for buildings, with no hole in the ground.


  15. #315
    Crabby airline hostess - stache's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by londonlawyer View Post
    I highly doubt that UBS, which is not in the best financial shape, will lease $750k sf at $80/sf+, which is what's basically needed to get the first tower under construction.
    ^ Correct. UBS had a couple of more branches in Midtown a few years ago but they closed them, now with just the XYZ location still open.

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