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Thread: Boom?

  1. #1

    Default Boom?

    For a bad economy, there seems to be a whole lotta building going on. Leading indicator, or bubble soon to burst?

  2. #2

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    BOOM.....

    Well, the same thing is going on in Boston right now, as well as many other large cities in the US.
    http://wirednewyork.com/forum/showth...l=1#post425125

    I believe what we are seeing here in NYC is just the most juiced-up example of what is happening all around the nation: people want to live the urban life style, they (even folks with kids) are coming back to the 'cities' in large numbers. This is all there is too it IMH assessment.

  3. #3
    Fearless Photog RoldanTTLB's Avatar
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    Default

    Construction was SO low for so long. The problem is that lending dropped off everywhere, whether projects were viable or not. This is because there was huge excess inventory (there still is). But as with all things real estate. It's location location location. Just because there's 10 years of excess housing stock in Florida, doesn't mean there shouldn't be new rental buildings in Manhattan, where vacancy is now under 1%. Banks, the real driver behind all this (because people are always willing to make mezzanine loans), are finally waking u to the fact that they need to be making money on this, and the risk in a place like NYC is relatively low. I guess I'm not in LA or San Diego much to see it, but it does seem like this round of growth is concentrated more to the north east (and Chicago). I have to admit that it may just be anecdotal, but Boston, NYC, and DC all seem to be booming in a way that SF is not.

  4. #4
    Forum Veteran Tectonic's Avatar
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    Default

    In NYC there are a lot of foreign buyers too.

  5. #5

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    Unfortunately, the great John Templeton is no longer around to give us advice. Maybe this time, people would listen to him.

    In 2003...
    http://www.garynorth.com/public/4690.cfm

    After his death in 2008, his family found a memorandum he wrote in 2005...
    http://www.newsmax.com/Ruddy/john-te...3/09/id/352142

    I don't know if the economy is bad, but it does seem to be overvalued. This real-estate is mostly high-end stuff.

    But the Market? Last year analysts were jumping all over themselves predicting Apple would be a trillion dollar company in a year. It's quickly lost 39% of its market cap.

  6. #6

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    Hard to say. I can tell you we sold our apartment in 10 days for more than the asking price. The market is pretty hot right now.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by eddhead View Post
    Hard to say. I can tell you we sold our apartment in 10 days for more than the asking price. The market is pretty hot right now.
    We sold our apartment in April 2011 for above asking in a week. (59th & Columbus area). The right properties never cooled down.

  8. #8

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    By historical standards, we aren't exactly in a building boom. Maybe soon, but not yet.

    And the economy isn't bad, IMO. I mean, the Dow is at a historic high this morning. The world is wealthier than ever. NYC is doing rather well.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by ASchwarz View Post
    By historical standards, we aren't exactly in a building boom. Maybe soon, but not yet.

    And the economy isn't bad, IMO. I mean, the Dow is at a historic high this morning. The world is wealthier than ever. NYC is doing rather well.
    The economy isn't bad? I think you may be living in a bubble.

    And when did the Dow become an indicator of anything meaningful?

  10. #10

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    An economy that's growing (however slowly) isn't shrinking; and that's not bad. As long as Washington doesn't screw it up.

    As far as the world being wealthier than ever, that's false. I don't know what the total comparison numbers are pre and post-collapse, but worldwide market cap went from $63 trillion to $29 trillion. Estimates for total financial assets is a loss of $50 trillion.

    Global wealth actually fell last year for the first time since 2008. Five percent to $223 trillion.

  11. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by HoveringCheesecake View Post
    The economy isn't bad? I think you may be living in a bubble.
    There have never been so many people living a middle class lifestyle. That, to me, isn't exactly a bad economy. Look at Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, Russia and Australia. All booming. That's the majority of the planet's population.

    And while the U.S. isn't exactly booming, the economy has been expanding for some time now, and the local economy has outperformed the national one. And the global rich view NYC as a safe investment, so the local economy benefits from new wealth from abroad.

    Quote Originally Posted by HoveringCheesecake View Post
    And when did the Dow become an indicator of anything meaningful?
    It's certainly meaningful to American households holding equities, pensions or 401ks (which would be a majority of households). To use a personal anecdote, I am currently in the market for a home, and the Dow rally has made a big difference in my housing budget. I can afford more home than a year ago.

    In any case, it's a somewhat useful gauge of consumer sentiment (though, like all indicators, never perfect or all-encompassing).

  12. #12

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    The same inequality of wealth - although to a greater degree in the US than other developed countries - has been happening worldwide. The US and EU account for one half of the world GDP; neither is doing so well.

    Quote Originally Posted by ASchwarz
    There have never been so many people living a middle class lifestyle.
    Are there numbers for this? Seems like the rich are getting richer, the poor are getting poorer, and the middle class is going nowhere.

    Five Charts That Matter More Than the DJIA

    On a day when the DJIA hit record numbers, corporate profits are at an all time, but not for employees.



    When the blue-chip average last hit these lofty levels, unemployment in the U.S. was a mere 4.7 per cent and home prices were still near their all-time highs. Today, the jobless rate is 7.9 per cent and the real-estate market remains 30 per cent below its peak of mid-2006.

    In the interim, corporate America has thrived. The profits of U.S. companies have flourished, rising from $1.34-trillion (U.S.) in 2009 to a fresh record of $1.97-trillion last year.

    Although the rate of growth has slowed considerably, corporate profit as a share of overall economic output is “extremely high in a historical context,” noted Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital. According to figures from the U.S. Federal Reserve, corporate profits as a share of national income are at their highest point since 1950.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...rticle9323157/

    Middle class Americans don't seem to be aware of what's going on around them. So they lash out - at government, the poor, or those illegal people.



    Maybe people are starting to clue in.



    The video was posted at YouTube last November, but started going viral last Friday

  13. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp View Post
    The same inequality of wealth - although to a greater degree in the US than other developed countries - has been happening worldwide. The US and EU account for one half of the world GDP; neither is doing so well.
    Yeah, I agree that the economy is still somewhat slow in the U.S., and moreso in Europe. And the middle class aren't making gains in the developed world.

    In the developing world, however, there has been a huge expansion of the middle class in places like Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Russia, etc. So it depends how you look at it.

    IMO, the local economy, while far from great, isn't terrible either. It's ok, growing slowly, and gaining momentum.

  14. #14

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    I'm more worried about the run-up in the Market than the nuts-and-bolts of the economy, which is at least chugging along.

    I'm at a point in life where, while I like the gains, I have to think about principle preservation.

  15. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZippyTheChimp View Post
    I'm more worried about the run-up in the Market than the nuts-and-bolts of the economy, which is at least chugging along.

    I'm at a point in life where, while I like the gains, I have to think about principle preservation.
    NYC's luxury market is definitely in a bubble... there is no way $10K/SF prices at the highest end are sustainable for any length of time...

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