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Thread: NYC population projections?

  1. #1

    Default NYC population projections?

    Have there been any projections of how fast New York City's population is growing--like how large it will be in 2015, 2020, etc? Are there any websites that have info on this type of stuff?


  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Jackson Heights


    It is very difficult to forecast population for small areas like a city or county. Demographic trends are easily modeled, but migration patterns are dependent on economic and political factors that are far less certain. Usually, local area forecasts rely on a bunch of policymakers sitting around a table, and developing assumptions that they can all agree on. Here is the "official" forecast for the New York region to 2025, based on that method:

  3. #3
    Forum Veteran
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Garden City, LI


    No one knows, it's impossible, but this was just in the NY Sun talking about how much unused or underused land there is in NYC:

    "But that's no longer true. New York is booming, and will probably continue to as long as people keep coming. Already by far the largest American city, New York is projected to grow to 8.5 million people over the next 30 years. But where will they live?"

    Basically, if all holds, the only think that would prevent NYC for growing and growing is the building of enough units.

    I still say we should somehow try to cram between 9.5-10 million in NYC.

  4. #4
    Forum Veteran
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    New York City


    To be at 8.5 Million in 30 years is a conservative projection, considering the latest census figures are at 8.1 Million, up from just over 8.0 Million in 2000.

    The Real Deal just did a good article listing each new unit being developed this year, double last years. I think the citywide total new units was around 20-30,000. If you half that, considering slower years, the 8.5 Million in 30 years is easily reachable.

  5. #5


    Wow---the metropolitan area has grown by 1,110,000 people since 2000!

  6. #6


    I get so many differentanswers for the popullation at the moment. 21 million seems most likely.

  7. #7


    The metropolitan area is at appox. 22 million people; the city itself is at just over 8 million people.

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